| Date | Tweet |
|---|
| 2026-08-13T09:46:26 | Feels like my $IQE thesis Feb this year got validated alongside $AXTI and others. (I still long on both)
So I stopped covering them as much. But TLDR on updates:
Early this year, IQE was a distressed but critical chokepoint in the optical supply chain with links to $LITE and others when I publi… → · 556 likes · 276,220 views |
| 2026-08-12T22:59:29 | My main takeaway was that your merchant CW laser suppliers seem to be EXTREMELY IMPORTANT now.
But TLDR of $COHR earnings:
"given the demand that we see in our DC business with transceivers, I don’t see any time in the near future where we would be selling indium phosphide lasers externally"
- T… → · 929 likes · 391,498 views |
| 2026-08-12T07:54:08 | So this is just what I'm seeing with $SIVE and the CW DFB laser chokepoint right now.
From optical earnings:
1. $LITE: unexpected demand and imbalance for UHP CW lasers.
- Had ability to price up ASP for lasers.
- Scale up CPO on track for H2 2027 shipments, called out any CPO scale up delay … → · 1387 likes · 332,017 views |
| 2026-08-09T00:23:56 | I think it’s a good time to revisit $SIVE ~$427m/yr midpoint capacity revenue modeled projections.
Given recent industry earnings:
> $AAOI cited +20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers (with lasers as the bottleneck).
> $MTSI saying many "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the gener… → · 1356 likes · 551,640 views |
| 2026-08-07T12:55:47 | Some more TLDR takeaways from $AAOI ER:
- They also flagged DSP and TIA bottlenecks, which is a positive industry read through for names like $MXL, then $SMTC and $MTSI.
- For revenue growth, they're expecting more than $500 million revenue Q4, which is absurd growth.
For reference:
Q2: $191.9M… → · 982 likes · 411,120 views |
| 2026-08-07T05:46:59 | Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough.
1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments.
"We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not … → · 1641 likes · 712,869 views |
| 2026-08-06T23:41:38 | $MTSI earnings transcript:
"Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers"
Emphasis on "Urgency", CW "DFB lasers", "coming to us".
CW DFB names, such as like $SIVE and $LITE should be happy to hear about this laser bottleneck getting va… → · 712 likes · 247,690 views |
| 2026-06-27T02:11:30 | $SPCX / Elon Musk acquires Mesh, an optical networking startup.
Which is working on 1.6T OSFP (pluggable).
It’s seems they own the optical engine/packaging side of things, but likely sources CW DFB lasers off merchant companies.
$SIVE is one of the more startup friendly plausible merchant suppli… → · 1787 likes · 663,849 views |
| 2026-06-16 | Other way around, $NVDA bottlenecked the entire industry for EML capacity.
And did the same with CW capacity ONCE AGAIN with $LITE, $COHR, and $MRVL (if they have LTA in place with Celestial)
I said this a few months ago, we'd see this exact same playbook. But $AMD, $AMZN, $META, and others are ju… → · 174 likes · 26,341 views |
| 2026-06-15T07:25:28 | Wow, $IQE and $TSEM sign a multi year InP epiwafer deal.
Remember I told you all IQE was important to Western optical supply chains back at $12?
$MTSI had to go out of their way to secure their supply with IQE.
Now there’s another critical deal with Tower Semi. https://t.co/4A5PAuA3PU → · 997 likes · 445,970 views |
| 2026-06-15 | Ayar started off multi-sourcing with $MTSI and $LITE.
Then removed them from their website and likely made $SIVE primary source (likely for first gen).
It's every hyperscaler supplier intention to multi-source, there's nothing material being added there.
Ayar is one of the bigger CPO players, … → · 162 likes · 18,318 views |
| 2026-06-12T07:22:33+00:00 | VPEC new price hikes on Epiwafers today.
Positive bottleneck read through on companies like $IQE and Landmark (3081) in terms of pricing power/demand for epiwafers.
This follows $MTSI investment into IQE to secure capacity, and shows how important some of these chokepoints https://t.co/EeOR3HjzPV → · 577 likes · 453,336 views |
| 2026-04-23 | Win Semi handles expansion… that’s why I was bullish on $SIVE so they don’t need to burn through capex handling this.
There’s only a few publicly traded companies in the world that can do this and they’re all in the tens of billions.
There’s a reason $JBL selected Sivers in specific. Same with Aya… → · 99 likes · 9,737 views |
| 2026-04-23 | All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC.
Markets don't understand what's coming.
From speculative mapping:
> $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL ->
1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial)
2. $MSFT (maia)
3. $GOOGL (recent dev… → · 2152 likes · 465,760 views |
| 2026-04-21 | Woah... Sivers looks like the primary laser supplier to $AMD's CPO program if AMD goes the Ayar route at $GFS.
The interesting thing is: $LITE and $MTSI were silently removed from Ayar's website sequentially over time.
(Special thanks to one of my followers Setian for the DM.)
So $SIVE likely be… → · 1162 likes · 438,706 views |
| 2026-03-26 | Photonics are not having a fun time.
Laser Companies from:
$LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, $MTSI, $AAOI all down.
Substrate, Foundries, and Epiwafer from:
$IQE, $AXTI, $SOI, $TSEM all down.
Almost everything is red.
From 6% on lower beta like Coherent all the way to to 22%.
Good lesson to learn:
Embr… → · 840 likes · 134,574 views |
| 2026-03-26 | So if you care about the second optical transicever bottleneck outside of EML/CW Lasers:
- $SANM (US)
- $TTMI (US)
- WUS Printed Circuit (TPE: 2316)
- Unimicron (TPE: 3037)
- Zhen Ding Tech (TPE: 4958)
- Gold Circuit Electronics (TPE: 2368)
Were winners for the optical transceiver PCB bottleneck.… → · 282 likes · 88,535 views |
| 2026-03-26 | @Alex__0x0 Yeah, everything from $AAOI, $LITE, $MTSI, $TSEM, $COHR, $AXTI, $SIVE, $IQE, Landmark, and others have been strongly outperforming!.
Sometimes you forget the index is down -4% YTD. → · 37 likes · 6,559 views |
| 2026-03-26 | $SIVE at ~$400m MC is a name I genuinely believe...
Institutions missed as the upstream laser chokepoint for hyperscalers.
When you look at $TSEM following my thesis, the stock went up 70% to a $21B+ MC.
Retail flows do not send NASDAQ stocks up $10B+.
Information discovery and synthesis does. E… → · 467 likes · 67,576 views |
| 2026-03-26 | @Berlinergy Exactly. Lot of things come just a lack of understanding.
If people developed their own conviction around names like $SIVE, $MTSI, $LITE if they saw how severe the EML/CW bottleneck is going to be.
Then when you see a 125%+ increase, you would still think it's undervalued. → · 27 likes · 4,363 views |
| 2026-03-25 | @rodrimartinezgg Trading at ~$440M right now but my expectation is $2-3B today.
Then could be $MTSI $17-20B MC in a year and half once Jabil and others scale up. → · 31 likes · 4,993 views |
| 2026-03-25 | @TGodTrader Oh 100% companies would want to acquire Sivers. They're one of the few companies in the world like $MTSI that can do this.
But acquisitions might be blocked since $SIVE is central to national security for both Europe and US (CHIPS Act recipient). → · 43 likes · 6,752 views |
| 2026-03-25 | @yathatone2 They're all kinda high conviction... aside from $MTSI and Win Semi.
You can probably just put all those in an equal weighted ETF and strongly outperform the market.
There's more laser suppliers/foundries like $GFS, but I chose my personal winners in the list above. → · 31 likes · 23,467 views |
| 2026-03-25 | Every industry leader...
Especially $AVGO (Physical Layer Products division) in this statement today.
Cites Lasers as a bottleneck for semiconductors.
If you aren't long...
-> CW Lasers: $SIVE | $MTSI
-> EML Lasers: $COHR | $LITE
-> or their foundries in $TSEM/Win Semi
Maybe it's time to wak… → · 729 likes · 279,979 views |
| 2026-03-24 | There's the Space Satellite MegaCycle:
-> Triggered by $PL.
With $BKSY / $SATL / $SPIR and others following.
Then there's the Photonics SuperCycle:
-> Triggered by $LITE and $COHR.
With $AAOI / $TSEM / $MTSI / $SIVE / $IQE / $SOI and others following.
One is hype over applications from Spac… → · 891 likes · 122,897 views |
| 2026-01-22 | Memory Supercycle Supply Chain TLDR:
US Sleeper HBM4/Memory alpha picks that benefit from $MU and SK/Samsung:
$VECO ($2B) -Laser annealing
$PLAB ($2.1B) - Lithography photomask
$ADEA ($2.18B) - Hybrid bonding
$ACLS ($2.9B) - Ion implantation
$FORM ($6.43B) - HBM wafer testing
$ONTO ($10.6B) - Pack… → · 1242 likes · 353,393 views |