| Date | Tweet |
|---|
| 2026-09-24T16:17:50 | I mean $LITE / $COHR did have $NVDA funding $2B for their buildout.
But Lumentum seems primarily self-funded from operating cash flow. So I'd expect $AAOI to follow suit once they start ramp up around H1 2027.
2026 is just that high capex buildout period. My criticism was over visibility and fin… → · 101 likes · 29,561 views |
| 2026-09-16T18:27:28 | Reminiscent of $NVDA w/ $LITE + $COHR:
Foxconn is now considering joint investments to avoid upstream material shortages.
Foxconn Interconnect Chairman identifies CW lasers and fiber as the biggest bottleneck in photonics.
Very interesting to see these two themes reiterated across industry commen… → · 748 likes · 452,206 views |
| 2026-09-15T23:47:15 | $SIVE has its own piece in Digitimes btw, which is appreciated industry recognition outside of Sweden.
I think Sivers 100M+ CW DFB laser capacity buildout forced the industry to revisit its models and generated considerably more coverage.
BC it puts Sivers into T1 laser capacity convo w/ $COHR, … → · 867 likes · 367,708 views |
| 2026-09-11T07:03:16 | Yep, I'm personally high conviction on the AI trade (especially photonics/memory) despite macro.
- $NVDA gave forecasts for $1.3T hyperscaler capex ($100B+ above BofA analyst expectations)
- $SPCX Wells Fargo forecasts are ~$263B for 2027.
- $127B spend in 2027 for Anthropic/OpenAI model training… → · 1335 likes · 445,289 views |
| 2026-09-09T12:16:07 | Citibank TMT: "lasers and optical fibers are being positioned as the "next HBM."
I've been talking about lasers like $LITE / $AAOI since 2025... and architectural shifts toward CW, ahead of the current industry consensus.
And fully agree with Lightmatter/Citi.
Just for reference:
For lasers: … → · 1366 likes · 873,923 views |
| 2026-09-08T05:48:47 | Glad $SIVE is attending CIOE Shenzen and hope my followers can go too!
If you want my read on current landscape:
-> Chinese pluggable makers like CIG (剑桥科技) are facing severe shortages in 70mW-200mW lasers.
If you look at filings from CIG, they claim "substantially longer delivery times and depos… → · 767 likes · 310,711 views |
| 2026-09-07T09:20:51 | Of course, but it's just really exciting to think about these ideas sometimes.
I forgot to add in $AAOI as another example. Even though they do end-to-end pluggables, they're even potentially vertically integrating upstream too.
Think last ER they mentioned JVs with InP substrate makers... So rem… → · 64 likes · 18,860 views |
| 2026-09-02T10:53:20 | $MRVL SVP and CTO of Optical Engineering Radha Nagarajan, at Semicon Taiwan:
1. Names Europe/Japan for laser supply sourcing as examples for SiPH modules.
Very interesting that Marvell's SVP had Europe in mind when giving examples of laser supply sourcing for SiPH modules.
I can't really name … → · 602 likes · 232,918 views |
| 2026-09-01T11:50:52 | I can’t give advice over what people should do with their trades.
Personally speaking, I think $AAOI outperforms in 2027 and the $AXTI InP substrates bottleneck/chokepoint got validated.
With AXT it’s more of a matter of ASP hikes moving forward with their agreements like $LITE and $COHR. AXT is … → · 116 likes · 25,715 views |
| 2026-09-01T00:53:02 | @lijiu163076 $NVDA is growing at a capacity constrained 70% next year, which is ridiculously good.
My opinion is that it's hard to go wrong with Nvidia, because it's almost like a semiconductor ETF? They own decent parts of $INTC, $MRVL, $LITE, $COHR, $NBIS, and Mediatek now. → · 105 likes · 22,186 views |
| 2026-08-31T05:35:30 | $TSM Vice President of Advanced Packaging:
"Foundries can scale up the optical engine, but the real bottlenecks to large scale deployment lie elsewhere...
Including lasers, optical fiber, fiber-optic connectors, and test" (UDN)
Just some bucket ideas:
Lasers: $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, LandMark (3081… → · 648 likes · 201,583 views |
| 2026-08-30T11:40:04 | Just some random ideas from Elon’s post:
$AAON - Chillers / liquid cooling
$NVT - Cooling
$MOD - Chillers / Cooling
$IESC - Wiring
$MTRS - chillers
$JCI - chillers
$HPS.A - Transformers (disclosure I own positions in this)
$PRY.MI - networking/wiring(fiber)
$CRDO / $AAOI (same) / $LITE / $COHR - ne… → · 2640 likes · 632,591 views |
| 2026-08-30T09:04:08 | Just my final recap on thoughts + fundamentals of $SIVE from ER:
Pluggables (1.6T Ramp) for 2027:
- $JBL (1.6T LRO, confirmed) Orders H1 2027, Ramp H2 2027
-> -> Likely multiple hyperscaler customers
- 3 pluggable makers (evaluation)
- 3 pluggable makers (supply assessment)
Reference Design for… → · 1019 likes · 312,857 views |
| 2026-08-30T06:24:05 | It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X:
- try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it
- get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups
- throw out personal or illogical att… → · 2395 likes · 268,731 views |
| 2026-08-29T18:11:11 | $AXTI would need to hike ASPs of InP substrates to extreme levels you see in memory to see further rerating eg. $20-30B valuations.
I think the bottleneck is proven, their chokepoint is proven.
However, I don't know what the contracts or LTAs with $LITE and $COHR entail. We'll find out over time… → · 100 likes · 44,625 views |
| 2026-08-29T10:51:36 | If I had to be critical of $SIVE earnings:
1. Management underweighted the two disclosures that matter most.
-> 6 pluggable engagements
-> Foundry capacity (during an industry bottleneck)
That's the most important part of the call and should have been the focus to provide economic scale of them.… → · 1051 likes · 386,276 views |
| 2026-08-28T06:53:51 | Here's the angle I'm looking at $SIVE at:
Companies/CSPs have been going out of their way way to lock up any qualified CW laser capacity for optical transceivers.
So now, Sivers is coming into the industry with:
- Large capacity from Win Semi
- "tremendous capacity that is available now" from a… → · 956 likes · 373,785 views |
| 2026-08-26T20:28:43 | I know everyone’s watching $NVDA earnings right now…
But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US customer to ensure “sufficient supply”?
So now you have:
- $LITE (capacity gone)
- $COHR (capacity gone)
- Landmark (capacity committed)
- $AAOI (capacity for transceivers)
- $MTSI … → · 1176 likes · 307,956 views |
| 2026-08-16T11:15:15 | I feel like AI investing is simpler than what people expect.
Because $NVDA + Jensen literally tells everyone what's coming.
But somehow. Almost every. single. time. Markets dismiss it until it actually happens?
Be Nvidia in 2025: Buys up EML and laser capacity.
Markets dismissing it: "Photo… → · 6583 likes · 994,200 views |
| 2026-08-12T22:59:29 | My main takeaway was that your merchant CW laser suppliers seem to be EXTREMELY IMPORTANT now.
But TLDR of $COHR earnings:
"given the demand that we see in our DC business with transceivers, I don’t see any time in the near future where we would be selling indium phosphide lasers externally"
- T… → · 937 likes · 434,210 views |
| 2026-08-12T07:54:08 | So this is just what I'm seeing with $SIVE and the CW DFB laser chokepoint right now.
From optical earnings:
1. $LITE: unexpected demand and imbalance for UHP CW lasers.
- Had ability to price up ASP for lasers.
- Scale up CPO on track for H2 2027 shipments, called out any CPO scale up delay … → · 1399 likes · 352,817 views |
| 2026-08-11T20:16:01 | $LITE earnings are out, very strong earnings:
Revenue: $1.01B, +24.5% Q/Q, +109.3% Y/Y growth
vs. ~$984.6M
Adj. EPS: $3.23 vs. ~$2.95
Gross Margin (non-gaap): 50.4% / Operating margin (non-gaap) 36.6%
Q1 FY2027 guidance is probably more important:
Revenue: $1.225–1.275B vs. ~$1.16B
Adj. EPS: $4.0… → · 1444 likes · 564,842 views |
| 2026-08-08T17:52:29 | Yes, I'm still bullish on memory like $MU / Samsung.
As I said earlier, markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck.
This week it looks $AXTI to $LITE in the photonics sector is the focus again.
The thing is... the primary thing that changed are the stock prices, followed by some narrat… → · 3139 likes · 1,491,555 views |
| 2026-08-07T05:46:59 | Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough.
1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments.
"We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not … → · 1642 likes · 726,772 views |
| 2026-08-06T22:54:46 | Just some TLDR notes on $AAOI earnings:
- Expects full qualification of 1.6T products by their hyperscaler customer within next couple of weeks
(helpful revenue ramp #2, timelines)
- Continues to believe that AOI will have the largest AI DC transceiver production capacity in the US
(reiterati… → · 1493 likes · 299,875 views |
| 2026-08-06 | $AAOI is an end of H1 2027 volume ramp player for me, since around then is when they hit inflection point of $471m/month revenue projections.
Recent drafted ban on new optical transceivers coming from Innolight and others, increase weight on players like AAOI, $SIVE / $JBL, $LITE, $COHR for their … → · 161 likes · 20,195 views |
| 2026-08-01T06:24:58 | $LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs:
Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory.
And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand.
This is especially visible with EMLs today but is… → · 1902 likes · 455,699 views |
| 2026-07-31T07:14:23 | Few earnings TLDRs with my favorite $AXTI and $AMZN:
Amazon:
- Raised 2026 capex to $220B vs. prior $200B (partly due to higher memory costs, which is bullish on $MU to Samsung)
- Even at $220B, Amazon will not have enough capacity to meet all 2026 demand; Jassy expects the same in 2027.
- Most in… → · 1142 likes · 335,095 views |
| 2026-07-29 | $AXTI secured LTA with $COHR earlier, with a $22.3M reservation payment.
As well as a LTA with $LITE today, totaling $87M ($43.5M + $43.5M) again to reserve capacity.
Considering that these are both of the two leading optical players, seems positive.
The actual details such as pricing of the co… → · 153 likes · 27,328 views |
| 2026-07-23T04:49:37 | $INTC and $AMD to sign CPU LTAs with Chinese customers for AI DCs (Reuters).
- Prices of some CPU products have risen more than 40% in China since the start of the year from sources.
- Month-on-month increases topping 10% for some products
CPUs were already a bottleneck, following CPU ratios du… → · 1198 likes · 419,038 views |
| 2026-07-16T15:20:45+00:00 | Morgan Stanley listed $SIVE as the three core CPO laser players alongside $LITE and $COHR in their note 3 days ago.
Fidelity Research, JP Morgan and others have started to take active positions. They recently raised an oversubscribed institutional round at 57 SEK.
This is all ahead of US NASDAQ l… → · 289 likes · 73,490 views |
| 2026-07-15T15:07:50+00:00 | I don't see any fundamentally wrong. There's probably going to be large corrections from time to time flush out margin/leverage before things move higher.
And this month seems like that time of year?
$POET confirmed your big optical giants like $LITE, $COHR are completely sold out for the next 2 … → · 261 likes · 33,712 views |
| 2026-07-13T23:17:46 | TLDR of Innolight investor relations takeaways:
1. "Overall, 1.6T market demand has not contracted; instead, 800G demand has increased significantly compared with previous expectations"
Prob most important takeaway as a whole was 800G demand revision (also longer tail demand). Which is a bullish r… → · 930 likes · 397,527 views |
| 2026-07-13T19:20:46 | Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include:
- $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply
- Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms
- Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics,
- $TSM, $GFS, and $TSEM in silicon photonics foundry capacity
I’v… → · 2123 likes · 517,442 views |
| 2026-07-10T17:31:39 | Rosenblatt on recent optical sector weakness from $AAOI to $LITE:
"Stocks in the Optical sector have traded poorly for the last 1-2 months" due to CPO delay reports and China capacity scares.
"We think short sellers... do not actually strongly believe in the thesis."
Multiple short sellers told t… → · 1714 likes · 487,423 views |
| 2026-07-02T21:30:57 | $AXTI signs 3-year wafer deal with $COHR.
"Coherent will make a prepayment of $22,288,500 to AXT-Tongmei in exchange for a committed supply capacity." https://t.co/nTkyJSMo96 → · 1527 likes · 436,336 views |
| 2026-07-02T16:56:31 | Photonics is backed by actual revenue numbers and it's an architectural shift championed by $NVDA.
Quantum barely has any revenue.
$LITE is completely sold out for the next 2 years (per $POET AGM) likely starting into 2029. Lumentum is so strained that they buy CW lasers off competitors (earnings … → · 2238 likes · 731,391 views |
| 2026-06-23 | @SaiseiInvesting No, 0 clue why people invest in those types of ETFs.
- You have the most basic names you can buy yourself like $LITE / $COHR as heaviest weights, where they take management fees.
- Names not adjacent to AI DCs. → · 135 likes · 29,662 views |
| 2026-06-21T07:53:18 | I've been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently.
Here's my research/thoughts so far on it:
They're a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI.
And they've become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR, $LITE, Mitsubishi, Source, Sumitomo), w… → · 1081 likes · 680,218 views |
| 2026-06-21 | We're in a massive EML bottleneck right now and CW lasers are getting bottlenecked now too.
To my knowledge, $COHR is buying EMLs off $LITE because they can't make enough.
$LITE is majority allocated to EML, so they can't make enough CW lasers.
So they're buying CW lasers off competitors from … → · 102 likes · 24,260 views |
| 2026-06-21 | Korea is far behind with lasers. Maybe like 1 1/2 years if I had to guess.
Which is why OE Solutions is the very first/only to produce 100G EML in Korea AFAIK.
US ($LITE, $COHR) / Japan (Sumitomo, etc). dominates EML lasers. China has now kinda caught up.
US/Sweden/Japan dominates CW DFB IP.
… → · 73 likes · 15,473 views |
| 2026-06-19 | Yes, choosing the right theme is extremely important.
Even if $POET doesn't really do anything, it still gets brought up thematically due to $LITE, $COHR, and others.
Even if $RDDT outperforms extremely hard, it still gets brought down from $META, $MSFT, $CRM, and other software basket names. → · 142 likes · 24,592 views |
| 2026-06-18T09:38:11+00:00 | 非常感谢中文社区对我最看好股票的投资思路进行的深度剖析！
总的来说，像 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 这样的激光公司是我个人的最爱，因为它们在拓展营收方面有着极大的想象空间。它们可以不仅仅局限于销售激光器，还能制造完整的光模块 以及各种光引擎或 ELS (外部光源) 组件。
又或者像 $COHR → · 3103 likes · 1,101,779 views |
| 2026-06-16 | Other way around, $NVDA bottlenecked the entire industry for EML capacity.
And did the same with CW capacity ONCE AGAIN with $LITE, $COHR, and $MRVL (if they have LTA in place with Celestial)
I said this a few months ago, we'd see this exact same playbook. But $AMD, $AMZN, $META, and others are ju… → · 174 likes · 26,341 views |
| 2026-05-24 | Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it:
1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck.
The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely:
Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet.
If you … → · 2868 likes · 785,694 views |
| 2026-05-23 | $AAOI is more pure manufacturing scale and I'm extremely bullish on them.
So it's more like Furukawa + Innolight in my view? So extremely bullish for revenue ramp.
$SIVE is just pure one-of-a-kind IP, where major CPO hyperscaler supplier seems to all use them, like Ayar/Celestial and others.
E… → · 249 likes · 34,319 views |
| 2026-04-25 | It's highly nuanced, and I'll explain why it's not late, but late to some:
Photonics is the newest supercycle (maybe H1 into H2 2025 was the start).
Then there's many different architectural changes in each supercycle:
-> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AXTI and these names led the first
I did a the… → · 2384 likes · 483,574 views |
| 2026-04-24 | I'm amused by Swedish culture at this point.
That their retail/journalists are crying every day when someone posts a supply chain mapping of $SIVE lasers to:
-> $MRVL CPO
-> $AMD CPO
-> $JBL 1.6T LRO
-> $NVDA
-> $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT
-> Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba for ELS.
Then they go crying e… → · 1158 likes · 296,894 views |
| 2026-04-24 | Just putting out there...
Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return.
On 30 different stocks... mostly medium-large cap.
1. $INTC +29.62%
2. $MRVL +40.95%
3. $TSM +4.72%
4. $COHR +18.9%
5. $RKLB +26.76%
6. $DRAM +12.29%
7. $AVGO +18.32%
8. $AMZN +9.17%
9. $ARM +36.6%
10. $TSEM -1.25%
11… → · 1643 likes · 317,745 views |
| 2026-03-26 | @BabyYod59296514 Yeah, if names like $LITE or $AAOI run up a lot, corrections timed with macro selloffs hit a tad harder.
Surprised lower beta names like $COHR got hit -8% or so today. → · 18 likes · 6,098 views |
| 2026-03-26 | Photonics are not having a fun time.
Laser Companies from:
$LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, $MTSI, $AAOI all down.
Substrate, Foundries, and Epiwafer from:
$IQE, $AXTI, $SOI, $TSEM all down.
Almost everything is red.
From 6% on lower beta like Coherent all the way to to 22%.
Good lesson to learn:
Embr… → · 840 likes · 134,574 views |
| 2026-03-26 | Lot of uninvited speculation about $P4O.
It's a pure-play glass substrate supplier, likely to $LITE OCS supply chains.
And they supply to Samsung with potential mapping to $COHR.
I like to analyze hyperscaler upstream supply chains.
I don't control how the algos/markets react to anything I menti… → · 175 likes · 72,439 views |
| 2026-03-26 | So if you care about the second optical transicever bottleneck outside of EML/CW Lasers:
- $SANM (US)
- $TTMI (US)
- WUS Printed Circuit (TPE: 2316)
- Unimicron (TPE: 3037)
- Zhen Ding Tech (TPE: 4958)
- Gold Circuit Electronics (TPE: 2368)
Were winners for the optical transceiver PCB bottleneck.… → · 282 likes · 88,535 views |
| 2026-03-26 | @Alex__0x0 Yeah, everything from $AAOI, $LITE, $MTSI, $TSEM, $COHR, $AXTI, $SIVE, $IQE, Landmark, and others have been strongly outperforming!.
Sometimes you forget the index is down -4% YTD. → · 37 likes · 6,559 views |
| 2026-03-25 | I wouldn't say it's speculative. Hyperscalers have orders completely booked until 2028 from $LITE to $COHR.
Even $TSEM has 70% of their capacity booked and it's low fwd ~20 P/E 2028.
CW/CPO more speculative for photonics, not the pluggable optical transceivers cycle. But compared to memory/GPUs, … → · 131 likes · 42,031 views |
| 2026-03-25 | @genZinvest0r I got like 3 $P4O comments every other post of mine, so finally ended up taking a look at the DD.
Strategically it's pretty valuable as a glass supplier to Bosch, Samsung, and likely downstream $LITE maybe $COHR etc. Financially, not as much since extremely low BOM. → · 22 likes · 9,083 views |
| 2026-03-25 | Every industry leader...
Especially $AVGO (Physical Layer Products division) in this statement today.
Cites Lasers as a bottleneck for semiconductors.
If you aren't long...
-> CW Lasers: $SIVE | $MTSI
-> EML Lasers: $COHR | $LITE
-> or their foundries in $TSEM/Win Semi
Maybe it's time to wak… → · 729 likes · 279,979 views |
| 2026-03-24 | If you're new to $AAOI:
It looks scary entering positions near ATH at $109 after a 175% YTD increase.
However, this looks like the photonics equivalent of $SNDK.
And it so happens the center of the optical transceiver supercycle...
At a $8.2B valuation we can look at projections:
(est. Capaci… → · 935 likes · 144,700 views |
| 2026-03-24 | There's the Space Satellite MegaCycle:
-> Triggered by $PL.
With $BKSY / $SATL / $SPIR and others following.
Then there's the Photonics SuperCycle:
-> Triggered by $LITE and $COHR.
With $AAOI / $TSEM / $MTSI / $SIVE / $IQE / $SOI and others following.
One is hype over applications from Spac… → · 891 likes · 122,897 views |
| 2026-02-24 | Year to Date: 412.72%
Lot of it is just picking the right sector, profiting off of Jane Street algos weekly, and a bit of luck.
In terms of bottleneck longs, these are currently my favorite:
1. Memory - Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK, $MU, $SIMO
2. Photonics - $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, (maybe Ya… → · 3849 likes · 1,001,737 views |
| 2026-02-24 | $AXTI is my favorite just because of their strategic value to the photonics supply chains.
Otherwise $LITE is runner up, and largely undervalued if you fast forward two years. But as of now it looks a little overextended.
Prob $COHR #3 and $AAOI #4 as another moonshot with hyperscaler qualificatio… → · 22 likes · 2,845 views |
| 2026-01-24 | @Zlack00 SICC had a showcase in 2024, $COHR has its own 300mm milestone in December 2025.
$WOLF claimed to be first 300mm "single crystal" wafer. Others were claimed to be poly-crystal or low-quality substrates. So wording is nuanced. https://t.co/fH2GCc2G5c → · 11 likes · 4,472 views |
| 2026-01-24 | @platochi $COHR is like the Western Unimicron (in the sense they show up everywhere on future bottlenecks like SiC to InP, not comparing downstream/upstream).
When I do these supply chain mapping in space, robotics, AI, I like to invest in ones that just pop up multiple places. → · 7 likes · 2,054 views |
| 2026-01-24 | The potential SiC (Silicon Carbide) Interposer bottleneck stack for $NVDA Rubin and Hyperscaler ASICs (if you didn't like $WOLF):
Downstream SiC:
$TSM - SiC for CoWoS interposers
$AMKR - S-SWIFT packaging for SiC integration
$ASX- VIPack platform and optical integration.
SiC Midstream:
$KLAC - Si… → · 231 likes · 83,464 views |
| 2026-01-23 | If the moonshot (which is massive price hikes on InP like HBM) fails, then $AXTI increases revenue from capacity expansion from Northland's $100m raise and it becomes re-rated anyway.
There's two separate bottlenecks, one is all the precursors and feedstock (which $AXTI / Vital owns, ~80% or so c… → · 16 likes · 11,715 views |
| 2026-01-20 | There's a lot of panic about a potential market crash from
$OSS -6.1% to $ONDS -4.85% dropping ON.
But now, Trump is already starting to de-escalate as markets go red.
From the history of Trump's tariffs
We know one thing.
Trump cares too much about the market:
$1.5T in proposed defense spen… → · 328 likes · 97,879 views |
| 2026-01-19 | US Futures are down due to Greenland Tariff news.
Many popular names on EU stock exchanges are now down:
$ONDS (-8.55%) or $RKLB (-7.65%).
Here's how to potentially profit off the situation:
Tier 1: Supply Chains
This is a dispute with NATO Allies. This threatens supply chains.
Many US defen… → · 600 likes · 269,001 views |
| 2025-12-26 | HBM was a critical bottleneck in 2025 and we've seen that with $MU and SK Hynix.
Just researching components used for future hyperscaler ASIC deployments, the whole industry is moving to photonics.
If we go to the bottom of that supply chain it's just two companies for INP substrates. Which is ab… → · 67 likes · 36,169 views |
| 2025-12-26 | Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies:
1. $AXTI ($700M)
2. $SMTOY ($31.7B)
Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates.
Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and receivers.
$AVGO, $… → · 4032 likes · 6,552,541 views |
| 2025-12-23 | Personal Research: $MSFT Maia 300 supply chain.
On a $MRVL report, UBS est. 1M+ Maia by 2027.
An est. of $18B+ is estimated to flow down to suppliers from Maia ASIC ramp.
Here's where it goes:
1. $MRVL - $8-12B revenue (~30-40% margin) as the prime beneficary. They design the digital plumbing… → · 139 likes · 40,795 views |
| 2025-12-23 | $AAOI is up 24% and $LITE is 5% since my thesis today.
From BOM analysis, LITE ($27B) is levered toward TPU Ironwood due to OCS but benefits from NVDA + all ASICs.
AAOI ($2.5B), is levered toward MSFT MAIA ramp and Amazon Trainium.
InP like HBM, will be a bottleneck for 2026 as they’re the founda… → · 339 likes · 1,195,248 views |
| 2025-12-22 | Among $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, etc. I've found $LITE to be the most asymmetrical setup since it's central to ironwood (with OCS), blackwell, and other hyperscaler ASICs.
However, $AAOI is extreme alpha. Especially as a levered play on $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia ASICs scale up + one of the only In… → · 37 likes · 5,717 views |
| 2025-12-22 | I only have $LITE and $AAOI lol. But how I'd frame it is $LITE and $COHR are basically duopolies in photonics.
With $LITE extra leveraged on Google TPU growth.
Then there's $AAOI, extreme alpha + leverage call on $MSFT + $AMZN hyperscaler ASICs.
No action yet, no major runup (even down 12% this… → · 10 likes · 2,815 views |
| 2025-12-22 | $LITE is in the goldilocks moment where every single GOOGL TPU + hyperscaler ASIC + NVDA blackwell depends on it.
Right now they're supply constrained from demand (similar to Micron).
From what I understand, photonics right now is a duopoly ( $COHR and Lite).
However, for OCS, which is what Goo… → · 20 likes · 4,955 views |
| 2025-12-22 | The $LITE thesis: The hidden monopoly in the AI.
Lumentum is up 316% YTD, but might be 1000%+ by 2027.
Micron ($300B) or TSM ($1.5T) sit in the center of every TPU/GPU deployed.
But same with $LITE, but it's a $26B MC.
In Every, Single, TPU from Google, $LITE makes unbelievable amounts of pr… → · 571 likes · 780,036 views |
| 2025-12-21 | For me personally: A stock is "high conviction" when they are fundamentally de-risked and are going from that point to scale.
For example, $NBIS post-MSFT deal. I like $AAOI much better than $POET in the photonics space personally. But neither of them are "de-risked yet".
So Poet as you mentione… → · 13 likes · 6,443 views |
| 2025-12-17 | Just In: Amazon's $10B OpenAI Funding and The AI Supply Chain Ripple Effect.
$AMZN is set to invest $10B+ in OpenAI at a $500B+ valuation
Why this is a MASSIVE structural shift for AI stocks:
1. De-Risking the AI DC trade: ( $ORCL, $CRWV, $APLD, $CORZ )
With the SPEED Bill mentioned earlier, th… → · 89 likes · 87,243 views |
| 2025-12-12 | Broadcom [ $AVGO ] earnings results and its effect on the AI sector like $LITE and $NBIS:
Broadcom's ER was "double beat" with $18.02B revenue (+28% Y/Y) and $1.95 EPS, beating consensus.
But AVGO dropped -11.64% and brought down the AI sector.
Is this a buying opportunity?
Yes.
Broadcom is se… → · 130 likes · 29,196 views |
| 2025-12-05 | I've actually posted a breakdown + talked about each individual stock up there before if you follow what I normally post. This is just a consolidated list from history.
For example I posted a deeper dive on TPU v7 ironwood supply chain not too long ago ( $COHR, $AMKR, $LITE, $MPWR). And I post DD … → · 10 likes · 2,237 views |
| 2025-12-05 | As of current prices, December 5th:
The ideal AI portfolio for the LLM + TPU/GPU ramp would look like this:
· 25% $NBIS
· 15% $TSM
· 12.5% $LITE
· 10% $ALAB
· 10% $SMCI
· 10% $AMKR
· 5% Samsung Electronics
· 5% SK Hynix
· 5% $CRDO
· 5% $CLS
· 5% $COHR
· 5% $NVDA Calls
· 2.5% $AVGO Calls
· 2.5% $… → · 272 likes · 63,839 views |