| Date | Tweet |
|---|
| 2026-09-28T22:22:49 | Everyone is asking "Where is Serenity" or "Who is Serenity". But nobody is asking...
"How is Serenity"?
I do read things from $AMD $8.2B acquisition of World Labs... but feeling pretty sick right now, so taking a little break.
I remember saying physical AI + world models would major shift way … → · 1632 likes · 394,943 views |
| 2026-09-24T16:17:50 | I mean $LITE / $COHR did have $NVDA funding $2B for their buildout.
But Lumentum seems primarily self-funded from operating cash flow. So I'd expect $AAOI to follow suit once they start ramp up around H1 2027.
2026 is just that high capex buildout period. My criticism was over visibility and fin… → · 101 likes · 29,561 views |
| 2026-09-23T14:14:32 | So update from $LITE + Win Semi ( $SIVE ) foundry:
Lumentum in a meeting with Stifel at ECOC 2026 stated:
- $NVDA Spectrum-6 CPO UHP demands increased materially.
- NPO as larger than CPO, with multi-wavelength external lasers lifting ASPs (Sivers offers multi wave length DFB arrays, read throu… → · 888 likes · 282,518 views |
| 2026-09-22T16:00:06 | I guess I need to start calling $SNDK or $LITE Super Intelligence stocks.
Thanks Trump. https://t.co/x7tJcKjfsc → · 1001 likes · 323,821 views |
| 2026-09-20T17:51:10 | While everyone is focused on Bessent/He Lifeng talks today. Or $LITE / $MRVL / $SIVE at ECOC optical conference...
I'm just curious why my followers can leave 2K+ comments if I post in Chinese...
But if I share something in English: I only get 50 comments.
Feels bad anon → · 1064 likes · 443,605 views |
| 2026-09-16T18:27:28 | Reminiscent of $NVDA w/ $LITE + $COHR:
Foxconn is now considering joint investments to avoid upstream material shortages.
Foxconn Interconnect Chairman identifies CW lasers and fiber as the biggest bottleneck in photonics.
Very interesting to see these two themes reiterated across industry commen… → · 748 likes · 452,206 views |
| 2026-09-15T23:47:15 | $SIVE has its own piece in Digitimes btw, which is appreciated industry recognition outside of Sweden.
I think Sivers 100M+ CW DFB laser capacity buildout forced the industry to revisit its models and generated considerably more coverage.
BC it puts Sivers into T1 laser capacity convo w/ $COHR, … → · 867 likes · 367,708 views |
| 2026-09-11T07:03:16 | Yep, I'm personally high conviction on the AI trade (especially photonics/memory) despite macro.
- $NVDA gave forecasts for $1.3T hyperscaler capex ($100B+ above BofA analyst expectations)
- $SPCX Wells Fargo forecasts are ~$263B for 2027.
- $127B spend in 2027 for Anthropic/OpenAI model training… → · 1335 likes · 445,289 views |
| 2026-09-09T12:16:07 | Citibank TMT: "lasers and optical fibers are being positioned as the "next HBM."
I've been talking about lasers like $LITE / $AAOI since 2025... and architectural shifts toward CW, ahead of the current industry consensus.
And fully agree with Lightmatter/Citi.
Just for reference:
For lasers: … → · 1366 likes · 873,923 views |
| 2026-09-08T05:48:47 | Glad $SIVE is attending CIOE Shenzen and hope my followers can go too!
If you want my read on current landscape:
-> Chinese pluggable makers like CIG (剑桥科技) are facing severe shortages in 70mW-200mW lasers.
If you look at filings from CIG, they claim "substantially longer delivery times and depos… → · 767 likes · 310,711 views |
| 2026-09-07T09:16:19 | I'll let you decide that for yourself since that was an illustrative laser revenue modeling off $SIVE 100M CW DFB laser/year target.
But... do you want to know the main reason I like laser companies so much?
They don't just have to stay laser companies... just look at $LITE!
If we look at Lumen… → · 673 likes · 295,421 views |
| 2026-09-07T04:14:23 | Got curious and decided to track which thesis of mine were still up 100%+ YTD after the recent drawdown:
1. $AXTI - InP substrates
2. $NBIS - Neoclouds
3. $MU - Memory
4. $INTC - Foundry
5. $LITE - Photonics
6. $IQE - Epiwafers
7. $AAOI - Photonics
8. $GDRZF - Venezuela
9. $AEHR - Machines
10. $EW… → · 2203 likes · 456,882 views |
| 2026-09-04T09:14:21 | China reportedly halts some rare earth shipments to US.
Not a new blanket ban, or any mention of specific rare earths.
But… if I had to guess, Japan is usually a decent indicator of what’s actively important since Japan:
- “sources virtually all of its dysprosium and terbium from China.”
- galli… → · 762 likes · 646,238 views |
| 2026-09-03T16:15:07 | This is the correct response when looking at $SIVE >100m CW DFB extraordinary capacity disclosure.
To give some context, Trendforce July data cites global CW/EML capacity is roughly 608.4M/year (~50.7M monthly units annualized).
With $AVGO, $LITE, and Sumitomo making up ~335m/year combined.
By … → · 1108 likes · 359,112 views |
| 2026-09-02T10:53:20 | $MRVL SVP and CTO of Optical Engineering Radha Nagarajan, at Semicon Taiwan:
1. Names Europe/Japan for laser supply sourcing as examples for SiPH modules.
Very interesting that Marvell's SVP had Europe in mind when giving examples of laser supply sourcing for SiPH modules.
I can't really name … → · 602 likes · 232,918 views |
| 2026-09-01T16:44:48 | I don’t want to be on any board or be an activist investor, pls stop recommending me lol!
I’m just putting out my thoughts on how I see them become a $LITE type company, and operationally they’re in an amazing spot.
In the end, it all comes down to the leadership’s execution on their vision, and t… → · 257 likes · 47,954 views |
| 2026-09-01T11:50:52 | I can’t give advice over what people should do with their trades.
Personally speaking, I think $AAOI outperforms in 2027 and the $AXTI InP substrates bottleneck/chokepoint got validated.
With AXT it’s more of a matter of ASP hikes moving forward with their agreements like $LITE and $COHR. AXT is … → · 116 likes · 25,715 views |
| 2026-09-01T00:53:02 | @lijiu163076 $NVDA is growing at a capacity constrained 70% next year, which is ridiculously good.
My opinion is that it's hard to go wrong with Nvidia, because it's almost like a semiconductor ETF? They own decent parts of $INTC, $MRVL, $LITE, $COHR, $NBIS, and Mediatek now. → · 105 likes · 22,186 views |
| 2026-08-31T05:35:30 | $TSM Vice President of Advanced Packaging:
"Foundries can scale up the optical engine, but the real bottlenecks to large scale deployment lie elsewhere...
Including lasers, optical fiber, fiber-optic connectors, and test" (UDN)
Just some bucket ideas:
Lasers: $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, LandMark (3081… → · 648 likes · 201,583 views |
| 2026-08-30T11:40:04 | Just some random ideas from Elon’s post:
$AAON - Chillers / liquid cooling
$NVT - Cooling
$MOD - Chillers / Cooling
$IESC - Wiring
$MTRS - chillers
$JCI - chillers
$HPS.A - Transformers (disclosure I own positions in this)
$PRY.MI - networking/wiring(fiber)
$CRDO / $AAOI (same) / $LITE / $COHR - ne… → · 2640 likes · 632,591 views |
| 2026-08-30T09:04:08 | Just my final recap on thoughts + fundamentals of $SIVE from ER:
Pluggables (1.6T Ramp) for 2027:
- $JBL (1.6T LRO, confirmed) Orders H1 2027, Ramp H2 2027
-> -> Likely multiple hyperscaler customers
- 3 pluggable makers (evaluation)
- 3 pluggable makers (supply assessment)
Reference Design for… → · 1019 likes · 312,857 views |
| 2026-08-30T06:24:05 | It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X:
- try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it
- get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups
- throw out personal or illogical att… → · 2395 likes · 268,731 views |
| 2026-08-29T18:11:11 | $AXTI would need to hike ASPs of InP substrates to extreme levels you see in memory to see further rerating eg. $20-30B valuations.
I think the bottleneck is proven, their chokepoint is proven.
However, I don't know what the contracts or LTAs with $LITE and $COHR entail. We'll find out over time… → · 100 likes · 44,625 views |
| 2026-08-29T10:51:36 | If I had to be critical of $SIVE earnings:
1. Management underweighted the two disclosures that matter most.
-> 6 pluggable engagements
-> Foundry capacity (during an industry bottleneck)
That's the most important part of the call and should have been the focus to provide economic scale of them.… → · 1051 likes · 386,276 views |
| 2026-08-28T06:53:51 | Here's the angle I'm looking at $SIVE at:
Companies/CSPs have been going out of their way way to lock up any qualified CW laser capacity for optical transceivers.
So now, Sivers is coming into the industry with:
- Large capacity from Win Semi
- "tremendous capacity that is available now" from a… → · 956 likes · 373,785 views |
| 2026-08-27T19:15:45 | $SIVE ER transcript just dropped, TLDR:
- 6 NEW pluggable players working with Sivers now.
Probably the biggest news of the entire ER next to new foundry allocations.
"3 are in alpha sample evaluation stage" and another 3 in technical engagement / supply assessment stage."
And now it makes more… → · 1172 likes · 616,040 views |
| 2026-08-26T20:28:43 | I know everyone’s watching $NVDA earnings right now…
But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US customer to ensure “sufficient supply”?
So now you have:
- $LITE (capacity gone)
- $COHR (capacity gone)
- Landmark (capacity committed)
- $AAOI (capacity for transceivers)
- $MTSI … → · 1176 likes · 307,956 views |
| 2026-08-20T17:24:14 | Very positive. My opinion is that the optical sector underperformance recently from $AAOI to $SIVE has been absurd.
The demand visibility... is just way too stupidly high.
AOI: “Even combined AOI, Coherent program altogether, is still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next 3 years” (20… → · 1690 likes · 508,924 views |
| 2026-08-19T07:11:47 | We got $LITE, $MTSI, $AAOI all pointing to extreme demand imbalances with lasers/TIA/DSP/etc from earnings...
And now Elazr GM at their investor conference stated:
Optical supply is still far behind the market demand, the expected AI optical supply chain are likely to continue for years.
- "the… → · 1332 likes · 277,635 views |
| 2026-08-18T17:27:07 | My $AAOI TLDR notes at Rosenblatt summit:
- Expected to get paid premiums for US production of 800g/1.6T (very positive for ASP/margins).
- Several LTAs on the table, but doesn't want to sign to get capacity blocked by other customers (cough cough $NVDA).
- Sold out at least through second half … → · 1547 likes · 397,205 views |
| 2026-08-16T11:15:15 | I feel like AI investing is simpler than what people expect.
Because $NVDA + Jensen literally tells everyone what's coming.
But somehow. Almost every. single. time. Markets dismiss it until it actually happens?
Be Nvidia in 2025: Buys up EML and laser capacity.
Markets dismissing it: "Photo… → · 6583 likes · 994,200 views |
| 2026-08-16T04:50:40 | Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting:
- $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day.
LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a c… → · 1622 likes · 394,120 views |
| 2026-08-13T09:46:26 | Feels like my $IQE thesis Feb this year got validated alongside $AXTI and others. (I still long on both)
So I stopped covering them as much. But TLDR on updates:
Early this year, IQE was a distressed but critical chokepoint in the optical supply chain with links to $LITE and others when I publi… → · 572 likes · 308,739 views |
| 2026-08-12T22:59:29 | My main takeaway was that your merchant CW laser suppliers seem to be EXTREMELY IMPORTANT now.
But TLDR of $COHR earnings:
"given the demand that we see in our DC business with transceivers, I don’t see any time in the near future where we would be selling indium phosphide lasers externally"
- T… → · 937 likes · 434,210 views |
| 2026-08-12T07:54:08 | So this is just what I'm seeing with $SIVE and the CW DFB laser chokepoint right now.
From optical earnings:
1. $LITE: unexpected demand and imbalance for UHP CW lasers.
- Had ability to price up ASP for lasers.
- Scale up CPO on track for H2 2027 shipments, called out any CPO scale up delay … → · 1399 likes · 352,817 views |
| 2026-08-12T00:06:12 | $LITE earnings transcript TLDRs:
- "Our visibility into the timing of CPO scale-up deployments has also sharpened. We remain confident in a demand ramp for our ultra-high-power laser chips in the second half of calendar 2027"
H2 2027 start of CPO scale up ramp confirmed from Lumentum for their le… → · 897 likes · 330,050 views |
| 2026-08-11T21:09:43 | Insane earnings today for the AI theme with $CRWV, $SMCI, and $LITE.
Coreweave: Absurd ~$104B+ backlog, which doesn't include $25B+ of new customer agreements added in early Q3.
Compute demand read through for Neoclouds is enormous (For Nebius, Iren and others)
Supermicro: Absurd $65-72B in re… → · 2120 likes · 444,435 views |
| 2026-08-11T20:16:01 | $LITE earnings are out, very strong earnings:
Revenue: $1.01B, +24.5% Q/Q, +109.3% Y/Y growth
vs. ~$984.6M
Adj. EPS: $3.23 vs. ~$2.95
Gross Margin (non-gaap): 50.4% / Operating margin (non-gaap) 36.6%
Q1 FY2027 guidance is probably more important:
Revenue: $1.225–1.275B vs. ~$1.16B
Adj. EPS: $4.0… → · 1444 likes · 564,842 views |
| 2026-08-10T08:26:02 | Now that markets are hosting a laser party again from $SIVE, OE Solutions, $LITE, Coherent, to $AAOI.
There’s a pretty interesting study:
Both from Fidelity and a UC Berkeley research paper, that the best investors are the ones who either…
- Anecdotally forgot about their account (Fidelity)
- Did… → · 1370 likes · 338,427 views |
| 2026-08-10T02:03:29 | Just some near term events:
- OCP APAC tomorrow (Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA) and your CPO players are giving announcements/updates.
This should be a catalyst for certain optical players.
- Earnings week: with $ASTS, $RKLB reporting today (space), $LITE on Tuesday (photonics), $NBIS in the mid… → · 1127 likes · 347,970 views |
| 2026-08-08T17:52:29 | Yes, I'm still bullish on memory like $MU / Samsung.
As I said earlier, markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck.
This week it looks $AXTI to $LITE in the photonics sector is the focus again.
The thing is... the primary thing that changed are the stock prices, followed by some narrat… → · 3139 likes · 1,491,555 views |
| 2026-08-07T08:50:01 | I usually make fun of sellside, but Rosenblatt has pretty goated channel checks on optical names, and their reports are one of the few I like talking about.
$AAOI, $LITE, $SIVE, and the laser party has started to recover around the est. timing windows.
eg. last month: "Multiple short sellers tol… → · 1652 likes · 392,884 views |
| 2026-08-07T05:46:59 | Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough.
1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments.
"We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not … → · 1642 likes · 726,772 views |
| 2026-08-06T23:41:38 | $MTSI earnings transcript:
"Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers"
Emphasis on "Urgency", CW "DFB lasers", "coming to us".
CW DFB names, such as like $SIVE and $LITE should be happy to hear about this laser bottleneck getting va… → · 711 likes · 251,589 views |
| 2026-08-06T22:54:46 | Just some TLDR notes on $AAOI earnings:
- Expects full qualification of 1.6T products by their hyperscaler customer within next couple of weeks
(helpful revenue ramp #2, timelines)
- Continues to believe that AOI will have the largest AI DC transceiver production capacity in the US
(reiterati… → · 1493 likes · 299,875 views |
| 2026-08-06 | $AAOI is an end of H1 2027 volume ramp player for me, since around then is when they hit inflection point of $471m/month revenue projections.
Recent drafted ban on new optical transceivers coming from Innolight and others, increase weight on players like AAOI, $SIVE / $JBL, $LITE, $COHR for their … → · 161 likes · 20,195 views |
| 2026-08-04T11:09:35 | A very material catalyst came about for Western supply chains from $AAOI, $SIVE / Jabil, to $LITE and Coherent:
The Trump administration is drafting a ban of new Chinese optical transceivers and DC devices.
Which would likely hit China’s Innolight, Eoptolink, and other Chinese optical interconne… → · 2580 likes · 698,434 views |
| 2026-08-01T06:24:58 | $LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs:
Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory.
And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand.
This is especially visible with EMLs today but is… → · 1902 likes · 455,699 views |
| 2026-07-31T07:14:23 | Few earnings TLDRs with my favorite $AXTI and $AMZN:
Amazon:
- Raised 2026 capex to $220B vs. prior $200B (partly due to higher memory costs, which is bullish on $MU to Samsung)
- Even at $220B, Amazon will not have enough capacity to meet all 2026 demand; Jassy expects the same in 2027.
- Most in… → · 1142 likes · 335,095 views |
| 2026-07-29T21:27:33 | $AXTI enters long term agreement with $LITE for InP substrates.
Lumentum has agreed to pay a deposit of $43.5M as a reservation for capacity. https://t.co/5Dl3L9EYRa → · 1298 likes · 387,171 views |
| 2026-07-29T17:07:41 | US Gov to take 1% stake in $GFS, and award them $300m for the US CHIPS ACT.
This is actually a strong read through on $SIVE / $LITE, given this CHIPS ACT is specifically aimed at advancing CPO + Silicon Photonics.
(For reference, Sivers and Lumentum were the only two public laser suppliers named … → · 1529 likes · 379,280 views |
| 2026-07-29 | $AXTI secured LTA with $COHR earlier, with a $22.3M reservation payment.
As well as a LTA with $LITE today, totaling $87M ($43.5M + $43.5M) again to reserve capacity.
Considering that these are both of the two leading optical players, seems positive.
The actual details such as pricing of the co… → · 153 likes · 27,328 views |
| 2026-07-29 | Global indiscriminate AI deleveraging right now, $AAOI is one of the high-beta names affected.
I'd personally be surprised to say the least if they do $5.6B annualized revenue in 2027 (off of $471m/month projections), and remain a $6.3B company.
$LITE annualized right now is ~$3.23B and they're a … → · 209 likes · 49,908 views |
| 2026-07-29 | I kinda expected it for critical minerals since Western needs as much subsidies as possible to compete with China.
US Gov taking a stake in $GFS for CPO was not on my calendar. But it does go to show CPO becoming a compute supply chain priority and they made Globalfoundries a domestic champion.
W… → · 111 likes · 23,264 views |
| 2026-07-28T22:25:27 | I personally see it as extreme short term deleveraging that overshot many individual names.
- $BE to $TER reported blowout results, with Bloom reporting 166% Y/Y rev growth + expanding margins + raised 2026 guidance... Teradyne reported 104% Y/Y revenue growth with 300%+ EPS growth.
Your leading… → · 2571 likes · 990,192 views |
| 2026-07-24T00:11:40 | Not exactly for $AAOI (they're working on CPO too, just a little further behind in commercialization).
There's a podcast that featured the $SIVE CEO recently called: "Market Insights: Photonics & AI".
Most interesting take was:
"Pluggables will be around for the next 10 years".
There's a lot of… → · 1125 likes · 644,432 views |
| 2026-07-23T04:49:37 | $INTC and $AMD to sign CPU LTAs with Chinese customers for AI DCs (Reuters).
- Prices of some CPU products have risen more than 40% in China since the start of the year from sources.
- Month-on-month increases topping 10% for some products
CPUs were already a bottleneck, following CPU ratios du… → · 1198 likes · 419,038 views |
| 2026-07-22T20:27:50 | $GOOGL reported earnings today:
EPS: $9.11 actual vs $2.91 expected - retail reactions to EPS blowout is kinda just accounting noise, since $SPCX, Anthropic, and others were likely large contributors.
Revenue: $119.7B actual vs. $116.98B expected
Google Cloud Revenue: $24.77B +82% Y/Y, vs. 63-65… → · 2073 likes · 913,907 views |
| 2026-07-21T17:41:05 | Wow, a historic single day recovery.
$SIVEF +30.89%
$IQEF +28.6%
$AEHR +26.53%
$CIFR +17.82%
$NBIS +17.3%
$AAOI +15.6%
$LPK +14.48%
$AXTI +14.12%
$MU +12.54%
$SNDK +12.8%
$SOI +11.1%
$TSEM +10.39%
$LITE +9.25%
$INTC +8.22%
$AMD +8.11%
$MRVL +7.27% → · 4556 likes · 722,373 views |
| 2026-07-21T08:13:03 | Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%.
Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+.
Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket.
$INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+.
Does the Cramer effect work on the ent… → · 2179 likes · 596,055 views |
| 2026-07-18T00:15:54+00:00 | If $AAOI are projecting $1.4B a quarter q3 2027 ($471m/month), which is $5.6B revenue annualized, (targeting 40%+ gaap gross margins).
And they’re a $8B MC…
Or if personal $SIVE CW Win capacity projections are around ~$400m midpoint array revenue off 60% gross margins.
And that’s a $1B MC.
Just… → · 163 likes · 21,878 views |
| 2026-07-17T21:19:06 | Thanks, love reading the comments!
Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations.
But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on:
- Much higher silicon photonics module volumes
- scale out, … → · 1101 likes · 791,307 views |
| 2026-07-16T15:57:05 | My guess is we’re close to market bottom on semis from $INTC to $LITE.
A good indicator is if everyone on $RDDT blew up their portfolios to $0. https://t.co/X1m9Yv1JuX → · 4071 likes · 934,712 views |
| 2026-07-16T15:20:45+00:00 | Morgan Stanley listed $SIVE as the three core CPO laser players alongside $LITE and $COHR in their note 3 days ago.
Fidelity Research, JP Morgan and others have started to take active positions. They recently raised an oversubscribed institutional round at 57 SEK.
This is all ahead of US NASDAQ l… → · 289 likes · 73,490 views |
| 2026-07-16T15:13:29+00:00 | I think people tend to forget that $LITE went from a $3B valuation to $60B+ in 2 years time from owning the EML chokepoint.
This was before the 9x TAM expansion to ~$154B per GS by H2 2028.
$SIVE has the opportunity to dominate the next CW chokepoint with 1.6T and CPO.
And it's sitting at ~$1.… → · 302 likes · 70,998 views |
| 2026-07-15T15:07:50+00:00 | I don't see any fundamentally wrong. There's probably going to be large corrections from time to time flush out margin/leverage before things move higher.
And this month seems like that time of year?
$POET confirmed your big optical giants like $LITE, $COHR are completely sold out for the next 2 … → · 261 likes · 33,712 views |
| 2026-07-13T23:17:46 | TLDR of Innolight investor relations takeaways:
1. "Overall, 1.6T market demand has not contracted; instead, 800G demand has increased significantly compared with previous expectations"
Prob most important takeaway as a whole was 800G demand revision (also longer tail demand). Which is a bullish r… → · 930 likes · 397,527 views |
| 2026-07-13T19:20:46 | Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include:
- $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply
- Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms
- Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics,
- $TSM, $GFS, and $TSEM in silicon photonics foundry capacity
I’v… → · 2123 likes · 517,442 views |
| 2026-07-10T17:31:39 | Rosenblatt on recent optical sector weakness from $AAOI to $LITE:
"Stocks in the Optical sector have traded poorly for the last 1-2 months" due to CPO delay reports and China capacity scares.
"We think short sellers... do not actually strongly believe in the thesis."
Multiple short sellers told t… → · 1714 likes · 487,423 views |
| 2026-07-10T08:23:29 | Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation.
After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo.
And the 2 reports on delays were denied by Nvidia.
Both of which caused the selloff in the first place...
So Photonics / Nvidia’s roadmap hasn’t fundamentally ch… → · 1692 likes · 602,605 views |
| 2026-07-09 | @Goodly2016 I just the algo gods just missed $SIVE after $LITE and the laser names pulled a recovery. → · 112 likes · 23,803 views |
| 2026-07-09 | $SIVE US NASDAQ listing is more for:
- Fundraising (most important thing) to acquire IP + TAM expansion and make each laser they sell more valuable. Following what $LITE did (eg. Cloud Light acquisition) from just selling lasers.
- Also it helps bridge valuation gaps, since I see it as underval… → · 186 likes · 20,813 views |
| 2026-07-07T19:49:55 | Hesai Technology, a Chinese lidar maker faces US national scrutiny over its expanded partnership with $NVDA and lidar sensors.
For $OUST, $AEVA, and Western lidar bros, this is generally positive if competitors get regulated out.
Since there were warnings that:
Sensors could be disabled or expl… → · 1024 likes · 429,950 views |
| 2026-07-07T14:03:29 | Just putting it out there:
If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others...
Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far.
Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals.
Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading… → · 5068 likes · 1,236,372 views |
| 2026-07-07 | $SIVE is probably my favorite stocks right now, not concerned about short term drops.
- You have the laser supplier to $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers.
- NASDAQ listing planned in the next few quarters
- Followed by M&A goals for TAM expansion.
And it's literally t… → · 522 likes · 105,164 views |
| 2026-07-06T21:14:10 | Was a sad few months for $RDDT. But glad it's finally back above $200.
Reddit was doing:
- $663M revenue w/ 91.5% gross margins
- $204M GAAP net income
- 45%+ fwd Y/Y growth after 69%+ growth.
- Net profit is ~30.7% of revenue
Felt very weird to see a profitable company get dragged down after ear… → · 816 likes · 366,754 views |
| 2026-07-06T08:25:00 | I personally think $SIVE can be the next $LITE.
In the past few months alone, we've seen:
1. Partnerships with O-Net pushing ELS into mass production
2. $JBL 1.6T LRO mass production signals with "relatively dramatic moats" for pluggables using Sivers.
3. $GFS SCALE reference level laser for hype… → · 1932 likes · 839,521 views |
| 2026-07-05 | Yep, $AMZN looks like the clear winner in physical AI shift.
I think the Amazon ecosystem... is probably going to the catalyst for robotics players compared to others in the Google/Meta ecosystems.
I kinda see parallels to the $GOOGL TPU effect on suppliers like $LITE or Mediatek, but for roboti… → · 116 likes · 29,927 views |
| 2026-07-04T18:02:28 | UDN Money report "殺翻光通訊後 SemiAnalysis 惹議 業界揭其劣跡 許多公司慘遭魔手":
- SemiAnalysis, released a report in June, questioning the timing of the launch of the CPO on the grounds of low yield and delay, which caused the photonics sector to collapse.
- The agency then partnered with Tema to launch a photonics E… → · 1018 likes · 488,076 views |
| 2026-07-03 | @256_rc -> Writes bearish report, specifically calling out $HIMX and $LITE
-> Proceeds to add $HIMX and $LITE their actively managed ETF after they drop -25-40%.
op strategy. → · 250 likes · 40,340 views |
| 2026-07-02T19:12:55 | Always a fun time seeing semi markets crash from Bloomberg report framing once again…
UBS analyst on $META report: “this is not new news”.
Regardless:
$AEHR down -18.3%
$AAOI down -17.13%
$SIVEF down -15.4%
$SNDK down -14.8%
$TER down -13.8%
$GLW down -11.4%
$MRVL down -11.2%
$LITE down -10.2%
$N… → · 2139 likes · 443,323 views |
| 2026-07-02T16:56:31 | Photonics is backed by actual revenue numbers and it's an architectural shift championed by $NVDA.
Quantum barely has any revenue.
$LITE is completely sold out for the next 2 years (per $POET AGM) likely starting into 2029. Lumentum is so strained that they buy CW lasers off competitors (earnings … → · 2238 likes · 731,391 views |
| 2026-06-29T06:57:45 | Just some notes on $POET AGM and read through on optical markets:
- "The top three laser suppliers control 68% of the market, and they’re completely sold out for the next two years"
$LITE CEO said into 2028, so POET implicitly confirms laser shortage is going into 2029 now.
- NRE with a new custo… → · 1181 likes · 589,156 views |
| 2026-06-29T05:26:31 | Honestly this decade from 2020-2030 might be the most goated in human history.
- Scaling massive reusable rockets for orbital compute with $RKLB to $SPCX.
- on the cusp of ASI and recursive learning with Anthropic and OpenAI
- Backflipping Boston Dynamics and Unitree humanoids to replace the hum… → · 3003 likes · 588,384 views |
| 2026-06-27T02:11:30 | $SPCX / Elon Musk acquires Mesh, an optical networking startup.
Which is working on 1.6T OSFP (pluggable).
It’s seems they own the optical engine/packaging side of things, but likely sources CW DFB lasers off merchant companies.
$SIVE is one of the more startup friendly plausible merchant suppli… → · 1787 likes · 663,849 views |
| 2026-06-26T09:50:52 | OFC I'm aware. But I'm personally sleeping comfortably since I have conviction in my hyperscaler mapping research with $SIVE.
And yes, I still have my million+ share position.
Not sure if people realize this: but I'm only here to share my thoughts/ideas.
I don't control market volatility, what d… → · 2063 likes · 768,670 views |
| 2026-06-26 | FYI, I posted ideas about $AXTI at $15, $AAOI at $30, $TSEM at $115, $LITE $300, $MU $300, $SNDK $400, $EWY $110, $SIVE $4.
$IQE $13, $SOI $44 and so on.
So when they finally have a massive correction due to macro drop the ideas are wrong? And most are still up a few hundred percent.
TW CPO names… → · 205 likes · 28,846 views |
| 2026-06-24 | @Zenctwill $MU earnings are probably a good read through on SK Hynix/Samsung, which is majority of KOSPI weighting (passively too). So seems more likely than not for SK index.
It’s also a positive read through on AI demand, which is why $LITE, $AAOI, and others jumped a tiny bit AH. → · 129 likes · 28,550 views |
| 2026-06-23T15:42:09 | Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day.
$KORU: -32.06%
$SOXL: -22.98%
$IQE: -13.58%
$DRAM: -12.6%
$AXTI: -12.57%
$FLNC: -12.5%
$AAOI: -11.2%
$SIVE: -11.7%
$TSEM: -10.24%
$SNDK: -12.5%
$MU: -11.8%
Sk Hynix: -12.35%
Samsung: -9.6%
$MRVL: -8.3%
$LITE: -7.6%
$SOI -7.15%
$TSM: -6… → · 2432 likes · 784,804 views |
| 2026-06-23T03:16:44 | IMO photonics theme + CW laser chokepoint is goated.
It's legit like markets have short term memory loss and forgot how $LITE went from $3B -> $65B+ from 2024 to now.
Because $NVDA caused EML bottlenecks, and forced architectural changes.
We're literally seeing the same thing today with CW lase… → · 1609 likes · 985,547 views |
| 2026-06-23 | @SaiseiInvesting No, 0 clue why people invest in those types of ETFs.
- You have the most basic names you can buy yourself like $LITE / $COHR as heaviest weights, where they take management fees.
- Names not adjacent to AI DCs. → · 135 likes · 29,662 views |
| 2026-06-21T07:53:18 | I've been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently.
Here's my research/thoughts so far on it:
They're a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI.
And they've become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR, $LITE, Mitsubishi, Source, Sumitomo), w… → · 1081 likes · 680,218 views |
| 2026-06-21 | @jeongpark0509 No price target, but I like to keep in mind:
$LITE went from 2.88B MC in 2024, to $67B MC in 2026.
Just took 2 years and $SIVE is around the same starting point as Lumentum today. → · 452 likes · 240,259 views |
| 2026-06-21 | We're in a massive EML bottleneck right now and CW lasers are getting bottlenecked now too.
To my knowledge, $COHR is buying EMLs off $LITE because they can't make enough.
$LITE is majority allocated to EML, so they can't make enough CW lasers.
So they're buying CW lasers off competitors from … → · 102 likes · 24,260 views |
| 2026-06-21 | Korea is far behind with lasers. Maybe like 1 1/2 years if I had to guess.
Which is why OE Solutions is the very first/only to produce 100G EML in Korea AFAIK.
US ($LITE, $COHR) / Japan (Sumitomo, etc). dominates EML lasers. China has now kinda caught up.
US/Sweden/Japan dominates CW DFB IP.
… → · 73 likes · 15,473 views |
| 2026-06-20T11:52:49 | I think u must be new here.
Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are.
$AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum.
They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions … → · 2258 likes · 724,798 views |
| 2026-06-19T12:19:38 | I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes!
My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics.
And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE.
However, I still have p… → · 2374 likes · 853,958 views |
| 2026-06-19 | Yes, choosing the right theme is extremely important.
Even if $POET doesn't really do anything, it still gets brought up thematically due to $LITE, $COHR, and others.
Even if $RDDT outperforms extremely hard, it still gets brought down from $META, $MSFT, $CRM, and other software basket names. → · 142 likes · 24,592 views |
| 2026-06-16T07:28:51 | Fun throwback to random ideas back in 2025.
Back then, $AAOI was $2B MC, $LITE was a $26B MC, $AXTI was $500M
Now:
- AAOI is $15.37B
- Lumentum is $74.47B
- AXT is $7.24B
Was working off less information back then, given it was an early theme.
Obviously nuances with ASIC → · 1195 likes · 515,561 views |
| 2026-06-16 | @aletir99 When has US investors ever cared about what people in Sweden think?
I still think $SIVE has the potential to be the next $75B $LITE if they follow the same M&A route after NASDAQ Listing. → · 294 likes · 65,381 views |
| 2026-06-16 | Other way around, $NVDA bottlenecked the entire industry for EML capacity.
And did the same with CW capacity ONCE AGAIN with $LITE, $COHR, and $MRVL (if they have LTA in place with Celestial)
I said this a few months ago, we'd see this exact same playbook. But $AMD, $AMZN, $META, and others are ju… → · 174 likes · 26,341 views |
| 2026-06-15T03:21:12+00:00 | Yep, very stupid to be a bear.
When Trump is doing everything to boost markets before Midterms.
On top, your $WOLF power semi basket should go brrr from 800 VDC acceleration.
$LITE optical basket should go brrr from InP easing.
$SPCX successful IPO gives more appetite to https://t.co/uh8HRxOE… → · 1682 likes · 706,511 views |
| 2026-06-15 | Ayar started off multi-sourcing with $MTSI and $LITE.
Then removed them from their website and likely made $SIVE primary source (likely for first gen).
It's every hyperscaler supplier intention to multi-source, there's nothing material being added there.
Ayar is one of the bigger CPO players, … → · 162 likes · 18,318 views |
| 2026-06-15 | @hisarchive lol I’m super bullish on my $SIVE position too.
> EU macro positive
> $LITE + laser group up 4-6% overnight trading from InP bottleneck easing
> possible Nasdaq listing timeline announcement today
We’ll see what happens. → · 402 likes · 135,766 views |
| 2026-06-12T04:26:43+00:00 | Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well!
From
$ALAB: $97-> $372
$LITE: $330 -> $904
$AAOI: $30 -> $175
And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM!
This was back when I had close to no followers!
I got some nuances slightly off before more https://t.co… → · 1458 likes · 622,296 views |
| 2026-05-25 | $SIVE is highest possible upside, since I see them being the next $LITE (which started at ~$2.6B as well in 2024, but now is $80B).
As laser chokepoints are known to downstream TAM expand, then vertically integrate assembly/fabs after.
Foci/Shunsin I kinda expect to 3-4x.
They're more structur… → · 227 likes · 24,115 views |
| 2026-05-25 | Did you listen anon?
$SIVE is extremely early.
And we’re about to see a ton of institutional inflow (Blackrock, Vanguard, MSCI, NASDAQ) next week for the first time.
Then, couple that with NASDAQ listing soon, with even more US institutions entering.
This is what it’s like to be in a name like… → · 2395 likes · 698,995 views |
| 2026-05-24 | @ShortsHoward So this is exactly what I mean by using ChatGPT will make you miss the nuances:
They're literally different architectures.
People using LLMs to compare $LITE single high power laser to one of the channel's outputs in a multi-channel array don't what they're talking about. → · 114 likes · 21,904 views |
| 2026-05-24 | Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it:
1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck.
The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely:
Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet.
If you … → · 2868 likes · 785,694 views |
| 2026-05-23 | I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter.
What matters is return %. Speaking of that...
YTD: 3840.39%.
I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe.
Do you remember these thesis anon?
1. $AXTI
2. $SIVE
3. $AAOI
4. $LITE
5… → · 4991 likes · 1,757,190 views |
| 2026-05-23 | People in Sweden always like:
“How does $SIVE have so little employees and can do all of this” vs. $LITE?
Turns out… You can build the most valuable IP in the world if ~1/4th your entire workforce are PHDs. https://t.co/oVlJJ9OEaZ → · 1396 likes · 171,894 views |
| 2026-05-23 | I said this before but I have high conviction in $SIVE.
I'm confident their UC Berkeley + $LITE executive team knows what IP to acquire. Since they've worked with Ayar and others from the start.
Also helps that 22% of their company are PHDs so entire team is cracked.
CHIPS ACT, all these likel… → · 215 likes · 17,723 views |
| 2026-05-23 | For $SIVE to become the next $80B+ $LITE.
Sivers is the current laser kingmaker of the optical transition to CPO and 1.6T.
They basically supply lasers to the leading players in the CPO space.
From likely $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, and others for CPO. before they got… → · 1644 likes · 676,514 views |
| 2026-05-20 | @osilayer8 Nah, I'm cheering on $SIVE to become the next $LITE.
I didn't acquire positions just for Sivers to be bought out by $MRVL or $JBL.
I also really don't think fundraising is going to be a problem on NASDAQ listing given photonics demand.
Just a waiting game. → · 137 likes · 14,353 views |
| 2026-05-20 | $SIVE is nominating two new board members today.
It's very highly telling since the newcomers have acquisition backgrounds from:
-> Head of M&A at Ericsson / Advisor at Verdane, focusing on M&A / Deutsche Bank.
-> CFO from HMS / Axholmen and Celerant Consulting around M&A/strategy.
The bull … → · 853 likes · 403,239 views |
| 2026-05-20 | I was thinking about export controls on Rasa/NCI but that would cause a lot of downstream collateral damage on $IQE, $LITE, etc. if you halted China's InP substrate production in general.
But halting China's humanoid production with Ulvac and other chokepoints doesn't really do as much collateral h… → · 55 likes · 9,614 views |
| 2026-04-25 | It's highly nuanced, and I'll explain why it's not late, but late to some:
Photonics is the newest supercycle (maybe H1 into H2 2025 was the start).
Then there's many different architectural changes in each supercycle:
-> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AXTI and these names led the first
I did a the… → · 2384 likes · 483,574 views |
| 2026-04-25 | @H0M3b $AMD was $3.5 almost a decade ago when I was looking at it but everyone kept telling me they couldn't compete with $INTC.
And that Intel could just beat them anytime.
Kinda feeling the same with $SIVE and $LITE? But we'll see. → · 98 likes · 9,537 views |
| 2026-04-24 | Photonics go brrr.
$MXL +76.2% (lol)
$AAOI +15.03%
$SIVE +12.69%
$AEHR +7.07%
$SOI +6.19%
$LITE +4.96%
Hope you didn’t sell and try and chase other bottlenecks anon? https://t.co/Ft2p94bDWR → · 1713 likes · 189,032 views |
| 2026-04-24 | I'm amused by Swedish culture at this point.
That their retail/journalists are crying every day when someone posts a supply chain mapping of $SIVE lasers to:
-> $MRVL CPO
-> $AMD CPO
-> $JBL 1.6T LRO
-> $NVDA
-> $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT
-> Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba for ELS.
Then they go crying e… → · 1158 likes · 296,894 views |
| 2026-04-24 | Just putting out there...
Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return.
On 30 different stocks... mostly medium-large cap.
1. $INTC +29.62%
2. $MRVL +40.95%
3. $TSM +4.72%
4. $COHR +18.9%
5. $RKLB +26.76%
6. $DRAM +12.29%
7. $AVGO +18.32%
8. $AMZN +9.17%
9. $ARM +36.6%
10. $TSEM -1.25%
11… → · 1643 likes · 317,745 views |
| 2026-04-23 | Not the best idea to feel FOMO about the new “bottleneck” in every news cycle.
It’s going from:
$NVDA GPUs -> $MU Memory -> $IREN Power -> $LITE EMLs -> $SNDK Memory -> GPUs -> $AAOI transceivers -> Advanced Packaging -> Transformers -> $INTC CPUs… etc
And next would be stuff like $LPK glass sub… → · 2812 likes · 339,954 views |
| 2026-04-23 | Win Semi handles expansion… that’s why I was bullish on $SIVE so they don’t need to burn through capex handling this.
There’s only a few publicly traded companies in the world that can do this and they’re all in the tens of billions.
There’s a reason $JBL selected Sivers in specific. Same with Aya… → · 99 likes · 9,737 views |
| 2026-04-23 | There's stuff I trade, and stuff I invest in.
I haven't sold a single $SIVE share since I bought it last month. I expect this to be the next $LITE if they play their cards right, and this is a long term investment.
As for stuff like $AXTI, I'm up over 1000%+ but I'm still holding. For multi-year s… → · 225 likes · 43,803 views |
| 2026-04-23 | All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC.
Markets don't understand what's coming.
From speculative mapping:
> $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL ->
1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial)
2. $MSFT (maia)
3. $GOOGL (recent dev… → · 2152 likes · 465,760 views |
| 2026-04-21 | Woah... Sivers looks like the primary laser supplier to $AMD's CPO program if AMD goes the Ayar route at $GFS.
The interesting thing is: $LITE and $MTSI were silently removed from Ayar's website sequentially over time.
(Special thanks to one of my followers Setian for the DM.)
So $SIVE likely be… → · 1162 likes · 438,706 views |
| 2026-04-21 | The $AMD and $GFS CPO announcement is probably bigger than markets expect for $SIVE.
With the news, it's likely $SIVE lasers power $AMD's CPO program.
Either through two potential paths:
1. Enosemi (AMD's in-house PIC design post-acquisition). Enosemi's chiplets are fabbed at GF but for the ELS,… → · 649 likes · 385,140 views |
| 2026-04-20 | What a crazy timeline?
Today, $AMD announced it's pushing into CPO and collaborating with $GFS.
This is highly bullish for $SIVE since for CPO/SiPH, it requires external laser light source.
And... guess who are the two public laser suppliers in the GlobalFoundries CPO ecosystem?
$SIVE (~$935m)… → · 1115 likes · 387,536 views |
| 2026-04-20 | Global Foundries photonics/CPO ecosystem list:
1. $GFS - $30.5B
2. $CDNS - $85.9B
3. $SEIGY - $217.2B
4. $SNPS - $84B
5. $KEYS - $57.3B
6. $ATEYY - $130.4B
7. RoboTechnik (ficonTEC) - $11.4B
8. $GLW - $141.2B
9. $LITE - $63.8B
10. $SIVE - $950m
11. $FN - $24.7B
12. $ASX - $63.3B
For publicly trad… → · 1135 likes · 207,635 views |
| 2026-03-26 | @BabyYod59296514 Yeah, if names like $LITE or $AAOI run up a lot, corrections timed with macro selloffs hit a tad harder.
Surprised lower beta names like $COHR got hit -8% or so today. → · 18 likes · 6,098 views |
| 2026-03-26 | Photonics are not having a fun time.
Laser Companies from:
$LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, $MTSI, $AAOI all down.
Substrate, Foundries, and Epiwafer from:
$IQE, $AXTI, $SOI, $TSEM all down.
Almost everything is red.
From 6% on lower beta like Coherent all the way to to 22%.
Good lesson to learn:
Embr… → · 840 likes · 134,574 views |
| 2026-03-26 | It's macro related but drops often present a good dip buying opportunity.
Almost everything is down, $SPY down -.82%, EU50 down 1.16%, Kospi down -3.22%. $LITE down -3.24%
Only defense/energy seem to be doing well so far.
But this is pre-market, sometimes things flip market open. → · 28 likes · 3,073 views |
| 2026-03-26 | @technicalanysis I've disclosed I thought it would amusing to own a potential chokepoint in $LITE OCS supply chain for extremely cheap valuations.
But I'm not trading it at all. Any price movement is out of my hands. → · 17 likes · 3,131 views |
| 2026-03-26 | Lot of uninvited speculation about $P4O.
It's a pure-play glass substrate supplier, likely to $LITE OCS supply chains.
And they supply to Samsung with potential mapping to $COHR.
I like to analyze hyperscaler upstream supply chains.
I don't control how the algos/markets react to anything I menti… → · 175 likes · 72,439 views |
| 2026-03-26 | So if you care about the second optical transicever bottleneck outside of EML/CW Lasers:
- $SANM (US)
- $TTMI (US)
- WUS Printed Circuit (TPE: 2316)
- Unimicron (TPE: 3037)
- Zhen Ding Tech (TPE: 4958)
- Gold Circuit Electronics (TPE: 2368)
Were winners for the optical transceiver PCB bottleneck.… → · 282 likes · 88,535 views |
| 2026-03-26 | @Alex__0x0 Yeah, everything from $AAOI, $LITE, $MTSI, $TSEM, $COHR, $AXTI, $SIVE, $IQE, Landmark, and others have been strongly outperforming!.
Sometimes you forget the index is down -4% YTD. → · 37 likes · 6,559 views |
| 2026-03-26 | $SIVE at ~$400m MC is a name I genuinely believe...
Institutions missed as the upstream laser chokepoint for hyperscalers.
When you look at $TSEM following my thesis, the stock went up 70% to a $21B+ MC.
Retail flows do not send NASDAQ stocks up $10B+.
Information discovery and synthesis does. E… → · 467 likes · 67,576 views |
| 2026-03-26 | @Berlinergy Exactly. Lot of things come just a lack of understanding.
If people developed their own conviction around names like $SIVE, $MTSI, $LITE if they saw how severe the EML/CW bottleneck is going to be.
Then when you see a 125%+ increase, you would still think it's undervalued. → · 27 likes · 4,363 views |
| 2026-03-26 | @itsthesquonky Thanks for your comment with $LITE, it was legendary.
Wasn’t too early to that one compared to when you spotted it but at least it returned triple digits. → · 20 likes · 2,412 views |
| 2026-03-26 | I’m curious…
With $AXTI, $IQE, or $SIVE.
And the many other photonics winners I’ve longed like $LITE that returned 100-1000% over the past few months.
When is it time for the salty folks out there to admit…
That my thesis are just right after all. Instead of downplaying it?
$20B+ companies lik… → · 884 likes · 80,074 views |
| 2026-03-25 | I wouldn't say it's speculative. Hyperscalers have orders completely booked until 2028 from $LITE to $COHR.
Even $TSEM has 70% of their capacity booked and it's low fwd ~20 P/E 2028.
CW/CPO more speculative for photonics, not the pluggable optical transceivers cycle. But compared to memory/GPUs, … → · 131 likes · 42,031 views |
| 2026-03-25 | @genZinvest0r I got like 3 $P4O comments every other post of mine, so finally ended up taking a look at the DD.
Strategically it's pretty valuable as a glass supplier to Bosch, Samsung, and likely downstream $LITE maybe $COHR etc. Financially, not as much since extremely low BOM. → · 22 likes · 9,083 views |
| 2026-03-25 | @AtlasShrug1 The supply chain map is just very interesting.
When a follower found likely $LITE OCS upstream suppliers on the glass wafer level alongside hundred billion dollar companies like $GLW.
Not recommending it and never said it was a good investment. → · 14 likes · 7,338 views |
| 2026-03-25 | So just checked out the comments...
$P4O does look like a potential upstream $LITE supplier at a $34M MC.
How it likely maps:
-> Plan Optik $P4O (Glass Wafers)
-> Teledyne $TDY or Silek (Mem Foundries)
-> $LITE (OCS Switches)
-> $GOOGL (TPUs)
However, $LITE likely dual sources with Corning ( … → · 314 likes · 213,905 views |
| 2026-03-25 | @QuantumDom It’s like $NVDA, there’s a whole ecosystem but sometimes the largest beneficiary is the direct GPU or Laser supplier like $SIVE or $LITE.
Instead of the $POET, $FN type companies.
There’s some high margin exceptions like Eoptolink → · 43 likes · 6,116 views |
| 2026-03-25 | Every industry leader...
Especially $AVGO (Physical Layer Products division) in this statement today.
Cites Lasers as a bottleneck for semiconductors.
If you aren't long...
-> CW Lasers: $SIVE | $MTSI
-> EML Lasers: $COHR | $LITE
-> or their foundries in $TSEM/Win Semi
Maybe it's time to wak… → · 729 likes · 279,979 views |
| 2026-03-24 | If you're new to $AAOI:
It looks scary entering positions near ATH at $109 after a 175% YTD increase.
However, this looks like the photonics equivalent of $SNDK.
And it so happens the center of the optical transceiver supercycle...
At a $8.2B valuation we can look at projections:
(est. Capaci… → · 935 likes · 144,700 views |
| 2026-03-24 | There's the Space Satellite MegaCycle:
-> Triggered by $PL.
With $BKSY / $SATL / $SPIR and others following.
Then there's the Photonics SuperCycle:
-> Triggered by $LITE and $COHR.
With $AAOI / $TSEM / $MTSI / $SIVE / $IQE / $SOI and others following.
One is hype over applications from Spac… → · 891 likes · 122,897 views |
| 2026-02-24 | Year to Date: 412.72%
Lot of it is just picking the right sector, profiting off of Jane Street algos weekly, and a bit of luck.
In terms of bottleneck longs, these are currently my favorite:
1. Memory - Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK, $MU, $SIMO
2. Photonics - $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, (maybe Ya… → · 3849 likes · 1,001,737 views |
| 2026-02-24 | $AXTI is my favorite just because of their strategic value to the photonics supply chains.
Otherwise $LITE is runner up, and largely undervalued if you fast forward two years. But as of now it looks a little overextended.
Prob $COHR #3 and $AAOI #4 as another moonshot with hyperscaler qualificatio… → · 22 likes · 2,845 views |
| 2026-02-24 | Good question for photonics you can see major scale up 2028 onward. It’s 2026 now and things are just getting priced in anticipation ( $LITE profits aren’t exactly high, but they’re expected to balloon in a few years as Google TPU programs and others scale up).
For memory you see it hitting the bal… → · 20 likes · 2,041 views |
| 2026-02-22 | @ValarMorghuliz9 $LITE is very undervalued if you fast forward 2 years.
But as of now, it’s probably a tad overextended and markets have done a bit too much frontrunning imo. → · 28 likes · 2,814 views |
| 2026-02-22 | $AXTI is the perfect example of how you find alpha.
Over the past few weeks I’ve shown:
- 7n indium nonstandard on SMM reaching ATHs
- photonic supply chains from litecounting and other analyst projections skyrocketing
- trade conflicts with Japan and China affecting Sumitomo and upstream compe… → · 710 likes · 99,856 views |
| 2026-02-21 | @PhotonCap Thank you! Hope you’re doing well yourself i remember we had some shared interest like $LITE, $AEHR to photonic names that have performed really well recently → · 16 likes · 5,647 views |
| 2026-01-20 | @StockStormX Yeah $VPG is like the $LITE (Google TPU) for robotics/ $TSLA Optimus ramp up.
Not very well known since markets haven't focused on robotics supply chains yet → · 6 likes · 2,577 views |
| 2026-01-20 | These types of selloffs are both risk-management and stems from irrational fear, eg. $OSS down -6.1% $SKYT down -6.3%, so the TACO trade presents great opportunities.
Esp. when healthy companies like $LITE drop another 3.78% overnight after a 6% drop on friday.
I'm going dip hunting -> Trump de-… → · 10 likes · 4,143 views |
| 2026-01-20 | There's a lot of panic about a potential market crash from
$OSS -6.1% to $ONDS -4.85% dropping ON.
But now, Trump is already starting to de-escalate as markets go red.
From the history of Trump's tariffs
We know one thing.
Trump cares too much about the market:
$1.5T in proposed defense spen… → · 328 likes · 97,879 views |
| 2025-12-26 | Thanks, we might not see a InP substrate bottleneck yet, but we’ll likely see it when hyperscaler ASICs (TPU, Trainium, Maia, etc.) ramp up -> supply strains like memory mid-2026.
That doesn’t quite mean material providers should be valued like $LITE, but the fact that the entire future AI buildout… → · 72 likes · 303,773 views |
| 2025-12-26 | Disclosure: I have positions in $LITE, $AAOI, and $AXTI in the photonics sector.
From my own personal thought process, if I see the entire AI industry and players like $LITE and Innolight bottlenecked by some $600m company worth less than a new pre-revenue LLM startup, I’m long.
There is downside … → · 91 likes · 20,832 views |
| 2025-12-26 | Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies:
1. $AXTI ($700M)
2. $SMTOY ($31.7B)
Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates.
Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and receivers.
$AVGO, $… → · 4032 likes · 6,552,541 views |
| 2025-12-24 | @jvthed210725 $LITE is personally my favorite since it’s central to every ASIC + gets much higher BOM share with OCS architectures like TPU.
$AAOI is levered Maia and Trainium ramp and we should get Maia 1M+ ramp 2026-2027 as per UBS note + other research firms, so it’s hidden opportunity → · 4 likes · 1,793 views |
| 2025-12-23 | Personal Research: $MSFT Maia 300 supply chain.
On a $MRVL report, UBS est. 1M+ Maia by 2027.
An est. of $18B+ is estimated to flow down to suppliers from Maia ASIC ramp.
Here's where it goes:
1. $MRVL - $8-12B revenue (~30-40% margin) as the prime beneficary. They design the digital plumbing… → · 139 likes · 40,795 views |
| 2025-12-23 | @bricked_trades $MRVL is a great long, I'll write a separate thesis on their role in maia 300.
This thesis was about $LITE though... So two different stocks. → · 9 likes · 2,106 views |
| 2025-12-23 | Uhh $AAOI is just a levered long in Trainium and Maia, since they’re not involved in TPU/Blackwell unlike $LITE from public info.
Maia was pushed backed to 2026, with ramp up in likely EOY into 2027.
Esp with rumors $AAOI co-developing by new architecture with Microsoft, they’ll likely scale up t… → · 9 likes · 3,097 views |
| 2025-12-23 | $AAOI is up 24% and $LITE is 5% since my thesis today.
From BOM analysis, LITE ($27B) is levered toward TPU Ironwood due to OCS but benefits from NVDA + all ASICs.
AAOI ($2.5B), is levered toward MSFT MAIA ramp and Amazon Trainium.
InP like HBM, will be a bottleneck for 2026 as they’re the founda… → · 339 likes · 1,195,248 views |
| 2025-12-22 | Not really! Markets are starting to realize $LITE's role in every single hyperscaler ASIC deployment + blackwell and when you look at BOM, it's a whopping amount, especially in TPU v7.
Lite is the photonics leader but many there's others like $AAOI, which are levered to MSFT Maia and AMZN Trainium… → · 20 likes · 3,748 views |
| 2025-12-22 | Yeah $LITE is incredible after seeing how it's in every single ASIC + $NVDA blackwell deployments.
Then once you do BOM analysis and model TPU/GPU deployments, it looks undervalued even at ATHs.
Then there's $AAOI, which is similar to LITE but levered toward AMZN | MSFT ASICs. It's one of the onl… → · 9 likes · 2,434 views |
| 2025-12-22 | Among $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, etc. I've found $LITE to be the most asymmetrical setup since it's central to ironwood (with OCS), blackwell, and other hyperscaler ASICs.
However, $AAOI is extreme alpha. Especially as a levered play on $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia ASICs scale up + one of the only In… → · 37 likes · 5,717 views |
| 2025-12-22 | I only have $LITE and $AAOI lol. But how I'd frame it is $LITE and $COHR are basically duopolies in photonics.
With $LITE extra leveraged on Google TPU growth.
Then there's $AAOI, extreme alpha + leverage call on $MSFT + $AMZN hyperscaler ASICs.
No action yet, no major runup (even down 12% this… → · 10 likes · 2,815 views |
| 2025-12-22 | $LITE is in the goldilocks moment where every single GOOGL TPU + hyperscaler ASIC + NVDA blackwell depends on it.
Right now they're supply constrained from demand (similar to Micron).
From what I understand, photonics right now is a duopoly ( $COHR and Lite).
However, for OCS, which is what Goo… → · 20 likes · 4,955 views |
| 2025-12-22 | @manukafirth Another good one is $AXTI which is the materials supplier for $LITE / photonics. $500m mc → · 40 likes · 11,820 views |
| 2025-12-22 | "Late".
$LITE is a $26B MC in the center of every future $GOOGL TPU deployment, $NVDA/ $AMZN / other GPU/ASICs.
8-12% BOM share of every Google TPU v7. This is like saying $NVDA was "late" when price it was a $1T MC.
But if you want want another player, $AAOI.
$MSFT is using them for Maia ASI… → · 74 likes · 527,904 views |
| 2025-12-22 | The $LITE thesis: The hidden monopoly in the AI.
Lumentum is up 316% YTD, but might be 1000%+ by 2027.
Micron ($300B) or TSM ($1.5T) sit in the center of every TPU/GPU deployed.
But same with $LITE, but it's a $26B MC.
In Every, Single, TPU from Google, $LITE makes unbelievable amounts of pr… → · 571 likes · 780,036 views |
| 2025-12-21 | @itsthesquonky I’ll do some research today on it, thanks for the shout.
I’m already into quite a bit of micro caps like $AAOI which is leveraged $LITE imo just for the $MSFT Maia ramp.
There’s the conference Jan 6-8 I think which should be a catalyst if Microsoft reveals more news about it → · 3 likes · 1,309 views |
| 2025-12-21 | Thanks for the $LITE shoutout. I didn't realize how instrumental it was to $NVDA blackwell, $GOOGL TPUs, and $AMZN Trainium chips.
Insane how it's part the core of single GPU/TPU/ASIC from every hyperscaler (hence why it's high-conviction)
As for $CRDO, similar ground to $ALAB regarding hig… → · 7 likes · 3,758 views |
| 2025-12-20 | So I’d say $RKLB is definitely the most overvalued right now.
$LITE is edging toward the overbought territory but it definitely warrants a re-rating given how critical it is in TPUv7, Trainium, and Blackwell chips.
$NBIS and $CRCL are most undervalued out of the bunch, then goes $ALAB. → · 21 likes · 5,358 views |
| 2025-12-17 | Just In: Amazon's $10B OpenAI Funding and The AI Supply Chain Ripple Effect.
$AMZN is set to invest $10B+ in OpenAI at a $500B+ valuation
Why this is a MASSIVE structural shift for AI stocks:
1. De-Risking the AI DC trade: ( $ORCL, $CRWV, $APLD, $CORZ )
With the SPEED Bill mentioned earlier, th… → · 89 likes · 87,243 views |
| 2025-12-14 | Falling Knife or Dip Buy?
What a brutal Friday for stocks after $ORCL and $AVGO earnings.
Popular FinX names that dropped in just 1 day:
$FRMI | -34.1%
$SNDK | -15.89%
$SEI | -15.3%
$OKLO | -15.13%
$MOD | -14.67%
$ALAB | -14.31%
$FLNC | -13.96%
$LITE | -12.83%
$GLXY | -11.73%
$AAOI | -11.73%
$AV… → · 92 likes · 148,547 views |
| 2025-12-12 | Broadcom [ $AVGO ] earnings results and its effect on the AI sector like $LITE and $NBIS:
Broadcom's ER was "double beat" with $18.02B revenue (+28% Y/Y) and $1.95 EPS, beating consensus.
But AVGO dropped -11.64% and brought down the AI sector.
Is this a buying opportunity?
Yes.
Broadcom is se… → · 130 likes · 29,196 views |
| 2025-12-12 | @DigestingX I'm researching $AVGO earnings right now and ASIC demand spillover to photonics like $LITE!
I wanted to add to my $LITE position since that was my lowest right now, so might be a buying opportunity as you mentioned. → · 6 likes · 1,116 views |
| 2025-12-12 | Yeah I really, really like $LITE but it’s already priced in with a premium.
I only have relatively small positions in $AAOI though just because of execution risk in case a hyperscaler drops purchase orders + competition from Jabil.
That being said it’s priced as a small cap component manufacturer … → · 4 likes · 1,737 views |
| 2025-12-11 | I was actually looking into $AMZN Trainium benchmarks from a semianalysis post and at Amazon's supply chain. And some friends like @yianisz post about it earlier, so I decided to look deeper at it.
But it has ~$4B spend from $AMZN as a backstop as they ramp up Trainium/Inferentia clusters, spend … → · 5 likes · 3,010 views |
| 2025-12-11 | I entered $ALAB, $NBIS, $TSM, and $LITE because of Mag7 funneling revenue numbers into them.
Lite uniquely because of its role in GOOGL TPU v7, AMZN Trainium v3/4, and NVDA Blackwell.
But there's a new one I found out about.
A small cap <$3B player that fits the thesis:
Name - $AAOI
A small cap… → · 298 likes · 709,626 views |
| 2025-12-08 | @itsthesquonky Round the time I did supply chain research on TPU v7 for $LITE!
Incredibly promising but a tad overextended right now
https://t.co/QFojyOiXXP → · 6 likes · 1,035 views |
| 2025-12-08 | Stock position updates:
Sitting on high-conviction longs like $NBIS and writing options, relatively lax weekend.
Minor position adds updates from last week:
$LITE - $316.5 (+5.53%) -> ~$335.91
Lite benefits from $NVDA Blackwell + $GOOGL v7 TPU rampup
$AMKR - $37.6 (+18.4%) ~$44.5
Benefits fro… → · 88 likes · 41,970 views |
| 2025-12-05 | I've actually posted a breakdown + talked about each individual stock up there before if you follow what I normally post. This is just a consolidated list from history.
For example I posted a deeper dive on TPU v7 ironwood supply chain not too long ago ( $COHR, $AMKR, $LITE, $MPWR). And I post DD … → · 10 likes · 2,237 views |
| 2025-12-05 | As of current prices, December 5th:
The ideal AI portfolio for the LLM + TPU/GPU ramp would look like this:
· 25% $NBIS
· 15% $TSM
· 12.5% $LITE
· 10% $ALAB
· 10% $SMCI
· 10% $AMKR
· 5% Samsung Electronics
· 5% SK Hynix
· 5% $CRDO
· 5% $CLS
· 5% $COHR
· 5% $NVDA Calls
· 2.5% $AVGO Calls
· 2.5% $… → · 272 likes · 63,839 views |
| 2025-12-05 | @ABC12D2 $LITE for exposure to TPU v7 ironwood ramp up → · 3 likes · 1,317 views |
| 2025-10-25 | @itsthesquonky First time I’ve heard of $LITE, seems interesting I’ll take a look over the weekend → · 3 likes · 4,073 views |