| Date | Tweet |
|---|
| 2026-09-30T04:21:25 | Bro, $AMZN semi ETF portfolio is probably going to end up more compelling than what $NVDA owns...
Today Amazon signed a $49.8M private placement into PCB maker Gold Circuit Electronics (2368). So now Amazon has ownership/warrants in:
- $AAOI
- Alchip
- $MRVL (Celestial)
- $ALAB
- $CRDO
- $JBL
… → · 1546 likes · 350,015 views |
| 2026-09-28T22:22:49 | Everyone is asking "Where is Serenity" or "Who is Serenity". But nobody is asking...
"How is Serenity"?
I do read things from $AMD $8.2B acquisition of World Labs... but feeling pretty sick right now, so taking a little break.
I remember saying physical AI + world models would major shift way … → · 1632 likes · 394,943 views |
| 2026-09-21T15:48:30 | I'm not having a fun day since I got sick today. But the bottlenecks are having a good time:
$AMD +9.13% | $INTC +14.16% | $ARM +14.33%
CPUs go brrr
$SIVE +10.32% | $AAOI +3.39% | AMS OSRAM +24.61%
Lasers go brrr
$EWY +4.08% | $DRAM +2.83% | $MU +2.23%
Memory go brrr
$NBIS +4.7% | $CRWV +5.0… → · 1700 likes · 541,179 views |
| 2026-09-20T17:51:10 | While everyone is focused on Bessent/He Lifeng talks today. Or $LITE / $MRVL / $SIVE at ECOC optical conference...
I'm just curious why my followers can leave 2K+ comments if I post in Chinese...
But if I share something in English: I only get 50 comments.
Feels bad anon → · 1064 likes · 443,605 views |
| 2026-09-19T20:06:50 | Just floating out an idea to $AVGO:
If you lock up $SIVE laser supply for next few years since you need “more laser capacity”.
You could unintentionally cause bottlenecks across your main ASIC competitors:
Like $MRVL (Celestial), AlChip, Mediatek, GUC (Ayar CPO), first gen deployments.
Where m… → · 1235 likes · 370,927 views |
| 2026-09-17T23:56:29 | TLDRs of things I found interesting this week:
- $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027.
$SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara)
- $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agree… → · 1430 likes · 378,470 views |
| 2026-09-08T13:49:10 | $AMZN signs a new deal with $QCOM, giving Amazon the right to buy a ~$4B stake of Qualcomm through warrants.
At this rate.. Amazon will be more of a semi ETF than $NVDA?
Given their existing equity/warrants with AlChip, $MRVL, $ALAB, $AAOI, and others.
This of course is linked with up to $60B in … → · 805 likes · 207,734 views |
| 2026-09-07T04:14:23 | Got curious and decided to track which thesis of mine were still up 100%+ YTD after the recent drawdown:
1. $AXTI - InP substrates
2. $NBIS - Neoclouds
3. $MU - Memory
4. $INTC - Foundry
5. $LITE - Photonics
6. $IQE - Epiwafers
7. $AAOI - Photonics
8. $GDRZF - Venezuela
9. $AEHR - Machines
10. $EW… → · 2203 likes · 456,882 views |
| 2026-09-03T16:15:07 | This is the correct response when looking at $SIVE >100m CW DFB extraordinary capacity disclosure.
To give some context, Trendforce July data cites global CW/EML capacity is roughly 608.4M/year (~50.7M monthly units annualized).
With $AVGO, $LITE, and Sumitomo making up ~335m/year combined.
By … → · 1108 likes · 359,112 views |
| 2026-09-02T11:09:22 | Supplier relationships are not going to be public, which is why it's fun looking into these clues.
I just found it very interesting $MRVL optical program lead had Europe in mind for laser supply sourcing.
It's like if they randomly named dropped Africa for supply chains, probably not many players … → · 89 likes · 21,399 views |
| 2026-09-02T10:53:20 | $MRVL SVP and CTO of Optical Engineering Radha Nagarajan, at Semicon Taiwan:
1. Names Europe/Japan for laser supply sourcing as examples for SiPH modules.
Very interesting that Marvell's SVP had Europe in mind when giving examples of laser supply sourcing for SiPH modules.
I can't really name … → · 602 likes · 232,918 views |
| 2026-09-01T08:30:14 | Just some TLDR news I found interesting:
1. $GOOGL (missed this) also invested in Mediatek alongside $NVDA for their $3.9B raise.
Google/Nvidia are goats with investments you look at $SPCX to Anthropic.
2. Samsung Electro-Mechanics discloses $778.9M MLCC deal / $CAPA (new MLCC ETF) also gives e… → · 808 likes · 309,997 views |
| 2026-09-01T00:53:02 | @lijiu163076 $NVDA is growing at a capacity constrained 70% next year, which is ridiculously good.
My opinion is that it's hard to go wrong with Nvidia, because it's almost like a semiconductor ETF? They own decent parts of $INTC, $MRVL, $LITE, $COHR, $NBIS, and Mediatek now. → · 105 likes · 22,186 views |
| 2026-08-31T13:26:03 | Yep, with $NVDA investing $3.5B into Mediatek.
It does feel like Nvidia is playing kingmaker with the next generation of ASIC winners like $MRVL / Mediatek, with a second order effect of eroding $AVGO position.
Playbook feels similar to what they did with Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CRWV (vs. hypers… → · 647 likes · 325,637 views |
| 2026-08-31T12:53:20 | @balllvest With how the trends are going with $MRVL and Mediatek. My guess is Alchip (disclosure, I own this) or $QCOM might be next.
I think the ASIC pie gets bigger for all of them though. → · 59 likes · 18,183 views |
| 2026-08-31T12:43:13 | Today, $NVDA has announced a $3.5B investment into Mediatek.
It appears Nvidia is "networking" itself into the broader ASIC ecosystem, from $MRVL to MediaTek.
And have future ecosystems aligned with Nvidia standards. (maybe to fend off $AVGO as well) https://t.co/okdGKS51U3 → · 652 likes · 234,748 views |
| 2026-08-31T09:17:47 | Imagine Celestial ($MRVL acquisition) was public.
The valuation would probably be astronomical in US markets (if I had to guess, $6-10B)
Because 2028 revenue projections were $500m (q4 annualized runrate), 2029 revenue projections were $1B.
And because Celestial is a core part of hyperscaler CPO… → · 678 likes · 242,295 views |
| 2026-08-30T09:04:08 | Just my final recap on thoughts + fundamentals of $SIVE from ER:
Pluggables (1.6T Ramp) for 2027:
- $JBL (1.6T LRO, confirmed) Orders H1 2027, Ramp H2 2027
-> -> Likely multiple hyperscaler customers
- 3 pluggable makers (evaluation)
- 3 pluggable makers (supply assessment)
Reference Design for… → · 1019 likes · 312,857 views |
| 2026-08-30T06:24:05 | It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X:
- try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it
- get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups
- throw out personal or illogical att… → · 2395 likes · 268,731 views |
| 2026-08-29T11:02:43 | Operationally, Sivers has been doing amazing. Communication wise, it's been subpar and atrocious from the CFO.
Just to give you a sense of valuations:
$SIVE is cheap enough now that $MRVL could just blow spare change to buy it and vertically integrate their Celestial acquisition. → · 156 likes · 16,287 views |
| 2026-08-28T06:53:51 | Here's the angle I'm looking at $SIVE at:
Companies/CSPs have been going out of their way way to lock up any qualified CW laser capacity for optical transceivers.
So now, Sivers is coming into the industry with:
- Large capacity from Win Semi
- "tremendous capacity that is available now" from a… → · 956 likes · 373,785 views |
| 2026-08-22T20:40:31 | Apparently, $RDDT thinks $MRVL had two major catalysts recently:
The $12.2B Google TPU ecosystem agreement.
And…
Spider-Man: “Brand New Day” https://t.co/qmUvJqjcpo → · 2284 likes · 405,102 views |
| 2026-08-19T15:49:36 | $MRVL gives $GOOGL options to buy $12.2B of the company.
"The Marvell-Google deal covers a broad range of technologies used with TPUs, including processors that run AI models, manage data storage and move information across networks."
Which could translate into ~$120 billion in revenue throu… → · 1211 likes · 353,875 views |
| 2026-08-16T04:50:40 | Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting:
- $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day.
LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a c… → · 1622 likes · 394,120 views |
| 2026-07-21T17:41:05 | Wow, a historic single day recovery.
$SIVEF +30.89%
$IQEF +28.6%
$AEHR +26.53%
$CIFR +17.82%
$NBIS +17.3%
$AAOI +15.6%
$LPK +14.48%
$AXTI +14.12%
$MU +12.54%
$SNDK +12.8%
$SOI +11.1%
$TSEM +10.39%
$LITE +9.25%
$INTC +8.22%
$AMD +8.11%
$MRVL +7.27% → · 4556 likes · 722,373 views |
| 2026-07-21T08:13:03 | Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%.
Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+.
Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket.
$INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+.
Does the Cramer effect work on the ent… → · 2179 likes · 596,055 views |
| 2026-07-16T15:35:19+00:00 | I’m not sure if you’re aware but the entire AI sector is dropping indiscriminately right now.
A $1T company like Samsung is down -26% this month. $MRVL is down -31%.
So higher beta names tend to move a lot more like $AAOI and $SIVE with their 50% drops.
But recoveries tend to be a lot more volati… → · 273 likes · 35,787 views |
| 2026-07-07T14:03:29 | Just putting it out there:
If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others...
Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far.
Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals.
Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading… → · 5068 likes · 1,236,372 views |
| 2026-07-06T08:25:00 | I personally think $SIVE can be the next $LITE.
In the past few months alone, we've seen:
1. Partnerships with O-Net pushing ELS into mass production
2. $JBL 1.6T LRO mass production signals with "relatively dramatic moats" for pluggables using Sivers.
3. $GFS SCALE reference level laser for hype… → · 1932 likes · 839,521 views |
| 2026-07-02T20:37:26 | Does anyone else have this annoying seed planted in their mind too?
Whenever I see $MRVL drop, I get reminded of Jensen’s comment “The next $1T company”. → · 2840 likes · 686,105 views |
| 2026-07-02T19:12:55 | Always a fun time seeing semi markets crash from Bloomberg report framing once again…
UBS analyst on $META report: “this is not new news”.
Regardless:
$AEHR down -18.3%
$AAOI down -17.13%
$SIVEF down -15.4%
$SNDK down -14.8%
$TER down -13.8%
$GLW down -11.4%
$MRVL down -11.2%
$LITE down -10.2%
$N… → · 2139 likes · 443,323 views |
| 2026-07-02 | @DogUrineCapital This is pretty disgusting to see $MRVL down -11%, $AMAT down -11% to $NBIS down -18%
On the bright side a lot of the higher beta/smaller names like $AAOI frontran the drop.
So those are faring better https://t.co/OEyJ4YiQQr → · 143 likes · 35,851 views |
| 2026-06-26 | Not really, I personally still think it's undervalued. It's about MC relative to forward revenue potential.
In just that tiny timeframe for $SIVE:
- $JBL announced 1.6T LRO with Sivers
- $GFS reference laser announcement with $SIVE
- $AMD went to $GFS for CPO
- $SIVE announced CW with TFLN
- Aya… → · 387 likes · 72,512 views |
| 2026-06-24T06:52:41 | OpenLight (private) seems to get bigger and bigger every time I look at it.
If you’re curious about their public ecosystem outside of Advantest:
$JBL ( $SIVE partner ) for scaling PICs
$MRVL and $MXL for DSPs
$TSEM for the foundry.
$300394.SZ / TFC Optical (OSAT/subassembly)
Can often get exposur… → · 791 likes · 650,271 views |
| 2026-06-23T15:42:09 | Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day.
$KORU: -32.06%
$SOXL: -22.98%
$IQE: -13.58%
$DRAM: -12.6%
$AXTI: -12.57%
$FLNC: -12.5%
$AAOI: -11.2%
$SIVE: -11.7%
$TSEM: -10.24%
$SNDK: -12.5%
$MU: -11.8%
Sk Hynix: -12.35%
Samsung: -9.6%
$MRVL: -8.3%
$LITE: -7.6%
$SOI -7.15%
$TSM: -6… → · 2432 likes · 784,804 views |
| 2026-06-23T02:27:55 | Best time to long CXL for memory pooling was 4 months ago.
$ALAB up 276% from $117 -> $440
$MRVL up 291% from $79 -> $309 https://t.co/7XmXHyXgb1 → · 1037 likes · 579,399 views |
| 2026-06-21T11:04:51 | That’s a misconception:
$SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up.
Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc.
- Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers.
Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and… → · 1496 likes · 777,978 views |
| 2026-06-20T11:52:49 | I think u must be new here.
Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are.
$AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum.
They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions … → · 2258 likes · 724,798 views |
| 2026-06-19T12:19:38 | I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes!
My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics.
And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE.
However, I still have p… → · 2374 likes · 853,958 views |
| 2026-06-16 | Other way around, $NVDA bottlenecked the entire industry for EML capacity.
And did the same with CW capacity ONCE AGAIN with $LITE, $COHR, and $MRVL (if they have LTA in place with Celestial)
I said this a few months ago, we'd see this exact same playbook. But $AMD, $AMZN, $META, and others are ju… → · 174 likes · 26,341 views |
| 2026-06-15 | Ayar started off multi-sourcing with $MTSI and $LITE.
Then removed them from their website and likely made $SIVE primary source (likely for first gen).
It's every hyperscaler supplier intention to multi-source, there's nothing material being added there.
Ayar is one of the bigger CPO players, … → · 162 likes · 18,318 views |
| 2026-05-23 | I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter.
What matters is return %. Speaking of that...
YTD: 3840.39%.
I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe.
Do you remember these thesis anon?
1. $AXTI
2. $SIVE
3. $AAOI
4. $LITE
5… → · 4991 likes · 1,757,190 views |
| 2026-05-23 | For $SIVE to become the next $80B+ $LITE.
Sivers is the current laser kingmaker of the optical transition to CPO and 1.6T.
They basically supply lasers to the leading players in the CPO space.
From likely $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, and others for CPO. before they got… → · 1644 likes · 676,514 views |
| 2026-05-20 | If people don’t realize why I’m so interested in $SIVE M&A.
Sivers likely customers were:
Lightmatter when they were tiny -> became $4B+ company.
Lightelligence when they were tiny -> became $10B+ company.
Ayar when they were tiny -> now funded by $NVDA, $AMD, and others.
Celestial when they we… → · 1001 likes · 206,756 views |
| 2026-05-20 | @osilayer8 Nah, I'm cheering on $SIVE to become the next $LITE.
I didn't acquire positions just for Sivers to be bought out by $MRVL or $JBL.
I also really don't think fundraising is going to be a problem on NASDAQ listing given photonics demand.
Just a waiting game. → · 137 likes · 14,353 views |
| 2026-05-19 | Just putting it out there:
$SIVE short interest is probably higher than 17%+ now.
As lot of local Swedish hedge funds are very underwater, shorting Sivers.
They're about to meet US institutions through:
> MSCI inflow in 2 weeks.
> NASDAQ Listing.
> US CHIPS Act backstop.
alongside core rev… → · 1140 likes · 335,947 views |
| 2026-04-25 | I was long $RKLB in the 10's, because of their reusable rocket success rate. Despite banks/analysts claiming it would crash.
I was long $HOOD in the 10's because of their massive consumer base and TAM expansion into other segments.
I'm long $SIVE because their lasers look designed into $AAPL, $MR… → · 217 likes · 26,167 views |
| 2026-04-24 | Hi, appreciate the more productive discussion.
But I've never seen anyone aside from Europeans complain about 2.5% $13M dilution to get listed on NASDAQ.
Over in the US... we have random Bitcoin miners with $6B+ dilution (over half the MC) just to attempt a pivot and buy GPUs. So the amount to … → · 90 likes · 6,685 views |
| 2026-04-24 | I'm amused by Swedish culture at this point.
That their retail/journalists are crying every day when someone posts a supply chain mapping of $SIVE lasers to:
-> $MRVL CPO
-> $AMD CPO
-> $JBL 1.6T LRO
-> $NVDA
-> $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT
-> Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba for ELS.
Then they go crying e… → · 1158 likes · 296,894 views |
| 2026-04-24 | Just putting out there...
Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return.
On 30 different stocks... mostly medium-large cap.
1. $INTC +29.62%
2. $MRVL +40.95%
3. $TSM +4.72%
4. $COHR +18.9%
5. $RKLB +26.76%
6. $DRAM +12.29%
7. $AVGO +18.32%
8. $AMZN +9.17%
9. $ARM +36.6%
10. $TSEM -1.25%
11… → · 1643 likes · 317,745 views |
| 2026-04-24 | Everyone’s out there sharing new YTDs after $MRVL, $INTC to $ARM went up…
I think I’ll stop sharing mine just to let others feel better? → · 1080 likes · 295,539 views |
| 2026-04-23 | @centraly22 I wouldn’t have high conviction long on a $850m MC photonics company if they weren’t likely volume ramping to $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, Ayar, and others in a years time. → · 139 likes · 14,578 views |
| 2026-04-23 | All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC.
Markets don't understand what's coming.
From speculative mapping:
> $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL ->
1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial)
2. $MSFT (maia)
3. $GOOGL (recent dev… → · 2152 likes · 465,760 views |
| 2026-04-23 | Hmmm. Probably $SIVE or $LPK for CPO/Glass Substrates since those are emerging technological shifts in 2027.
I really don't think markets understand yet what's up and coming with Sivers for CPO/1.6T optical transceivers... even if I show mapping to $AMD or $MRVL CPO programs.
LPKF Laser feels de… → · 213 likes · 39,936 views |
| 2026-04-22 | Oh wow, I missed this.
That's probably why $POET is up 20.2% pre-market confirming "far in excess" of purchase orders on top of $MRVL supplier relationships.
That translates materially to $SIVE laser production as well.
Markets haven't fully priced in either yet imo. → · 810 likes · 412,021 views |
| 2026-04-22 | @scrotum_pensif I still think $SIVE should be valued $2B today and can hit $10B+ next year depending on volume ramp from Ayar, $MRVL, $JBL and others in 2028
They have all the stars aligned right now. → · 105 likes · 10,676 views |
| 2026-04-22 | Europe seems to be having a fun time from AI.
$LPK +20.69% - (glass core substrates) +20.69%
$IQE - 12.22% - (InP epiwafers)
$SOI +11.02% - (silicon photonics substrates)
$ALRIB +5.8% - (MBE / Quantum)
Then there’s $SIVE down -4.7% from a local Swedish hit piece, while $POET is up 40%+ after Marv… → · 908 likes · 366,065 views |
| 2026-04-22 | Woah... $POET is up 20.5% premarket today after a 19.32% gain.
Mainly after the CFO's interview confirming they're the direct supplier to $MRVL.
I wonder if markets know who the upstream laser supplier is yet? (hint: $SIVE). https://t.co/flfx9NVkxk → · 1353 likes · 309,359 views |
| 2026-04-21 | I'm genuinely laughing. This is gotta be the funniest headline I've seen to date since $RPI.
You have non-technical journalists in Sweden, with no understanding of semiconductors/photonics.
Doing an analysis on $SIVE and telling all the locals (who hold majority) to sell, because it's a "meme".… → · 935 likes · 276,028 views |
| 2026-04-21 | They're actually doing good work for US institutions encouraging local investors to sell.
It was a majority retail-locally owned stock. It will just transfer control over to institutions in the West.
Not sure what "meme stock" powers $JBL 1.6T, Ayar, $MRVL, and other CPO/photonics programs lol. → · 111 likes · 7,022 views |
| 2026-04-20 | It's legit coincidence that it's catalyst ( $JBL ) after catalyst (Nasdaq listing) after catalyst ( $GOOGL + $MRVL ), after catalyst ( $GFS ), after catalyst ( $GFS + $AMD ).
Alongside $NVDA investing into CPO everywhere.
I just timed my long after OFC but did not expect all of this lol. → · 95 likes · 8,268 views |
| 2026-03-26 | $SIVE at ~$400m MC is a name I genuinely believe...
Institutions missed as the upstream laser chokepoint for hyperscalers.
When you look at $TSEM following my thesis, the stock went up 70% to a $21B+ MC.
Retail flows do not send NASDAQ stocks up $10B+.
Information discovery and synthesis does. E… → · 467 likes · 67,576 views |
| 2026-03-26 | So there's deep investors (like you), then there's traders (like myself).
What investors miss is what causes a stock like $SIVE to go up.
For me, I timed it around $NVDA GTC + OFC conference, since there's likely new news around Nvidia pushing CPO architectures.
The reason for the parabolic ris… → · 70 likes · 6,188 views |
| 2026-03-24 | If you didn't know by now $SIVE is important to US national security via CHIPS act.
But especially, as the light source for hyperscaler AI supply chains.
They got two CHIPS acts grants ~$11.6M so far:
1. FR3 beamformer ICs with $ERIC and Raytheon $RTX.
2. EW Tech with $BA (LSE) BAE Systems
With… → · 424 likes · 93,842 views |
| 2026-02-21 | Year to Date: 316.4%
From January 2026 into February 2026.
Reflection of my short term trades and longs:
> Swing traded tax harvested stocks like $GLXY, $SMCI, and $IREN start of the year
> Rode Venezuela stocks from Gold Reserve, $AVAV, to $CVX (calls) up
> Bought into defense like $LPTH, $OSS… → · 1922 likes · 475,173 views |
| 2026-02-20 | IV is a measurement of implied volatility.
You can kinda eyeball test it based on the chart.
$EWY moves more in every day than companies with volatility (eg. $MRVL 55%) does a within a week.
Sometimes volatility is priced wrong and if you spot that, your calls go up faster than normal when marke… → · 38 likes · 5,779 views |
| 2026-02-20 | $EWY looks like it's about to get more volatile.
Market makers might not be pricing in leap option IV correctly as IV may expand past 55%.
Two reasons due to unrealized (but upcoming) volatility.
- 10X leveraged Samsung / Sk Hynix through Defi are here as they begin ramp-up.
This creates a gre… → · 305 likes · 174,227 views |
| 2026-01-23 | If the moonshot (which is massive price hikes on InP like HBM) fails, then $AXTI increases revenue from capacity expansion from Northland's $100m raise and it becomes re-rated anyway.
There's two separate bottlenecks, one is all the precursors and feedstock (which $AXTI / Vital owns, ~80% or so c… → · 16 likes · 11,715 views |
| 2026-01-23 | 저도 비슷한 생각입니다! Celestial은 꽤 오랫동안 $POET 와 함께 빌딩해왔는데, $MRVL(마벨) 하이퍼스케일러 백도어 소식까지 더해진 현시점에서 그것이 가장 큰 리스크 완화 요인(de-risking factor)이라고 생각합니다.
다만, 이 종목은 일종의 '문샷(moonshot, 대박 아니면 쪽박)'에 가깝습니다. 자금 조달 이후 재무 상태는 탄탄해졌지만, 시장에는 이보다 더 비대칭적인 수익 기회(asymmetrical plays)를 제공하는 종목들이 분명 있을 겁니다. → · 66 likes · 16,304 views |
| 2026-01-22 | $POET has crashed 17% after a direct offering of $150m in shares at $7.25.
They’re now sitting on a ~$420-$450m war chest with a ~$1.02B MC factoring in 20.6M new shares.
IMO this is a decent opportunity as the institutional offering price was $7.25.
Poet’s optical interposers are a genuine bottl… → · 495 likes · 131,556 views |
| 2025-12-23 | Personal Research: $MSFT Maia 300 supply chain.
On a $MRVL report, UBS est. 1M+ Maia by 2027.
An est. of $18B+ is estimated to flow down to suppliers from Maia ASIC ramp.
Here's where it goes:
1. $MRVL - $8-12B revenue (~30-40% margin) as the prime beneficary. They design the digital plumbing… → · 139 likes · 40,795 views |
| 2025-12-23 | @bricked_trades $MRVL is a great long, I'll write a separate thesis on their role in maia 300.
This thesis was about $LITE though... So two different stocks. → · 9 likes · 2,106 views |
| 2025-12-21 | For me personally: A stock is "high conviction" when they are fundamentally de-risked and are going from that point to scale.
For example, $NBIS post-MSFT deal. I like $AAOI much better than $POET in the photonics space personally. But neither of them are "de-risked yet".
So Poet as you mentione… → · 13 likes · 6,443 views |
| 2025-12-17 | Just In: Amazon's $10B OpenAI Funding and The AI Supply Chain Ripple Effect.
$AMZN is set to invest $10B+ in OpenAI at a $500B+ valuation
Why this is a MASSIVE structural shift for AI stocks:
1. De-Risking the AI DC trade: ( $ORCL, $CRWV, $APLD, $CORZ )
With the SPEED Bill mentioned earlier, th… → · 89 likes · 87,243 views |
| 2025-12-11 | I've looked into $POET but didn't like it as much compared to $AAOI given AAOI already has direct hyperscaler customers with $MSFT and $AMZN.
$POET had Celestial that got acquired $MRVL, where Celestial used poet’s interposer to connect tpus/trainium, and Marvell sells that to hyperscalers.
B… → · 10 likes · 2,568 views |